An analysis said Bitcoin’s 60-day historical volatility is nearing the level of spot gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On June 1 (local time), blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s senior ETF analyst, said on his X account that volatility and correlation between Bitcoin and gold are converging rapidly.

Data he presented showed that since BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) began operations, Bitcoin’s 60-day historical volatility has steadily declined and now exceeds the volatility level of spot gold ETFs.

This change is being taken as a sign that Bitcoin is moving away from its characteristics as a risk asset and strengthening traits closer to “digital gold” within the digital asset market. For institutional investors, volatility is among the biggest factors when adding Bitcoin to a portfolio, and the recent trend is being cited as lowering psychological barriers to entry.

Market attention is also focusing on performance, not only volatility. Balchunas said IBIT has delivered better performance than stocks even after Iran-related geopolitical tensions intensified. He also mentioned that cumulative returns since BlackRock applied for a spot bitcoin ETF are more than double those of SPY, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500.

The fact that volatility has fallen while maintaining outperformance versus stocks is helping raise IBIT’s profile in a recently unsettled market environment. Expectations are also resurfacing that Bitcoin could take over part of gold’s traditional role as an inflation hedge and a tool to diversify geopolitical risk.

The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs is being cited as a key backdrop to these changes. As ETFs allow institutional investors to access Bitcoin within regulated products, some interpret that sharp price swings seen in the past in a market dominated by individual investors are easing. Products offered by large managers such as IBIT are also serving as a channel for viewing Bitcoin not as a short-term speculative asset but as one to include in portfolios.

Still, the fact that volatility is moving closer to gold does not mean Bitcoin has fully established itself as a safe-haven asset. Bitcoin remains an asset that reacts sensitively to liquidity conditions, ETF fund flows and macroeconomic variables. The market is also voicing caution that it is necessary to determine whether the recent slowdown in volatility is temporary or a structural change driven by expanding institutional demand.

Supply and demand conditions for spot bitcoin ETFs remain a source of uncertainty. Swissblock said on May 26 that outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs are accelerating and that its proprietary risk index has also reached a high level. It warned that selling pressure from institutional investors is again dominating the market.

In this situation, the recent moderation in volatility is being read more as an indicator of a shift in the asset’s character than of the price itself. Whether Bitcoin can retain higher returns than stocks while securing some stability similar to gold is expected to be a key point to watch in future institutional fund flows.

"Bitcoin's volatility and correlation is getting closer and closer to gold's, which is underreported and perhaps one positive from this rough patch (altho believe it or not $IBIT is STILL outperforming stocks since Iran war started and >2x SPY since Blk ETF filing). Here's 60-day… pic.twitter.com/KCkA80JlqM"