[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP has fallen about 64 percent from its July 2025 peak, but on-chain indicators and technical trends point to a possible rebound to $3.10.

Cointelegraph reported on May 27 that the key factors are a drop in MVRV, a surge in XRP Ledger transactions and a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart.

First, the MVRV ratio, which compares market value with realized value, has fallen to levels near past accumulation zones and market bottoms. On-chain analytics firm Santiment pointed out that XRP’s 30-day MVRV is -47 percent, the lowest since December 2020. It said a sharp move into negative territory is interpreted as a phase in which retail investor exits have largely progressed, reducing downside risks and potentially increasing upside room.

XRP’s MVRV Z-score tracked by Glassnode is also hovering near 0. That zone has also coincided in the past with accumulation phases or market lows. When it fell to a similar level in late 2024, XRP formed a major low around $0.30 and then surged to above $3.

Network activity is also rising. CryptoQuant analyst TopnotchYJ said transaction volume surged on the XRP Ledger in April and assessed that “ecosystem activity and accumulation are quietly building.” He added that a pattern of transaction counts rising vertically is a leading network indicator that precedes explosive price expansion.

There have been similar moves in the past. After a surge in transaction counts in November 2019, a rally continued into 2021, and a similar pattern in July 2024 was followed by a sharp rise to a medium-term peak. XRP is currently moving sideways in the $1.30 to $1.50 range, and the possibility has been raised that this zone could serve as a macro bottom.

Technical trends also lean toward a rebound. XRP’s weekly chart has formed a falling wedge pattern moving between two downward trendlines since July 2025. The pattern is often cited as a structure that appears when a bullish reversal emerges after a prolonged decline. The lower support line has been presented near $1.30, a psychological support level.

The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is also moving out of oversold territory. This is a signal that selling pressure is easing, and there have been cases in the past when XRP showed a sharp rebound during similar RSI recovery phases.

Still, the upside scenario is not confirmed. On the weekly chart, XRP needs to break above the upper trendline at $1.50, and on the daily chart it needs to move above the $1.40 to $1.60 resistance zone and then hold. If these conditions are met, the measured target of the falling wedge pattern was presented at $3.10.

The analysis shows that even during a price decline, looking at on-chain data and chart structure together can provide a more multi-dimensional read of market-bottom signals. In XRP’s case, the key point is that network activity, investor profit-and-loss indicators and technical patterns are pointing in the same direction.

The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom. Historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP. The chart shows… pic.twitter.com/a0s4ObRpQu