[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis said XRP could rise to $11 in the long term despite short-term weakness.

On May 25, The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Egrag Crypto assessed that XRP is maintaining a descending broadening wedge pattern on the monthly chart. He put the probability of XRP rising to double-digit prices at 53 percent if the structure holds.

The key point of the analysis is that the recent decline is unfolding within the existing chart structure. XRP has fallen 11.6 percent over the past 2 weeks, but Egrag Crypto interpreted it as a pullback within the pattern rather than a breakdown of the trend. He argued that a descending broadening wedge pattern can often end with a strong rebound after a final sharp drop, and that XRP could show a similar move.

The pattern Egrag Crypto presented formed after a $3.4 peak in January 2025. XRP then fell while making lower lows, slid to $1.61 in April 2025 and later rebounded above $3. During a market plunge in October that year, it dropped again to $1.37, and early this year it fell to $1.1, setting a lower low. He said this created the current broadening wedge structure by forming a steepening lower trend line.

The price levels investors should watch were given as $1.11 and $3. Egrag Crypto called $1.11 a key support level. He said buying emerged there during a sharp drop in February 2026, and that if this support breaks, XRP could slide to $0.32 along the wedge's lower trend line. He estimated the probability of this downside scenario at 43 percent.

By contrast, the benchmark for a shift to bullishness is $3. Egrag Crypto said $3 aligns with the pattern's upper resistance line, and that a breakout could confirm upward momentum. In that case, XRP could rise into the $7 to $11 range, and could extend beyond that if the uptrend strengthens further.

Still, caution remains in the short term. He described the current market phase as a "bearish squeeze," but said the broader structure remains bullish as long as the pattern does not completely break down. He added that sideways moves, investor fatigue and additional volatility could appear until a major direction emerges.

Another analyst, Chart Nerd, warned of further downside risk from the perspective of long-term moving averages. He noted that XRP has traded around the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) for about 4 consecutive months, and that the indicator is currently around $1.30. Chart Nerd said the current move resembles past bear markets. He said XRP fell 61 percent after losing the 50-month EMA in the 2019 to 2020 bear market, and dropped 48 percent in 2022 after breaking below it.

That has made it a near-term watch point whether XRP closes below the 50-month EMA on a monthly basis. If breaking above $3 is the area that confirms the long-term bullish scenario, $1.11 and the 50-month EMA are being presented as lines that will determine whether downside pressure intensifies. The XRP market appears to have entered a phase where long-term upside expectations and warnings of further pullbacks are clashing at the same time.

#XRP - Formation Talks: The current structure looks like a Descending Broadening Wedge. This is NOT a random formation. Historically, these structures often produce: ▫️Final capitulation THEN ▫️Violent expansion Key Levels: $1.11 = Critical Support $3.00 = Bullish… pic.twitter.com/A2EmjMarj0