Bitcoin has fallen below a key $75,000 to $76,000 support zone, prompting a forecast it could slide to the $60,000 level.

Cointelegraph reported on Friday that bitcoin was trading around $75,800 at the time of writing. That was about 40% below its record high of $126,000 set in October 2025.

Crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe (미하엘 반 데 포페) said bitcoin fell below the key support zone on Friday. He also said pullbacks seen on Fridays often reverse into an uptrend, and mentioned the possibility of a short-term rebound. He added that multiple Chicago Mercantile Exchange bitcoin futures gaps remain above the spot price, with the highest zone above $79,000.

The outlook came amid macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash and interest rate policy. Bitcoin's bear market has extended into its seventh month.

Prediction market Polymarket reflected a 51% chance that bitcoin reaches $55,000 in 2026. The probability of a drop to $45,000 was 31%. On-chain data show 71% of the circulating supply is held by long-term holders, and some analysis also suggests a decline below $60,000 is unlikely.

Trader and crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland (매슈 하이랜드) said bitcoin rebounded for about 90 days after the $60,000 low in February. He said there has never been a case in bitcoin's history where an uptrend continued for 89 days during a bear market, and that in each of the past three instances, breaking higher-timeframe resistance marked the start of a bull-market rally.

Some analysis also says that even after the recent rebound over the past few months, bitcoin could move sideways for months if it fails to hold the key support line. Bitcoin is trading below its 365-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, according to TradingView data.