Criticism has resurfaced that Cardano (ADA) could be pushed out of the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market value within this year.

A market analyst, Shah, said investor interest is shifting to ecosystems with active user activity and strong growth momentum, according to blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic on May 8 (local time). He raised the possibility that Cardano's ranking could fall.

Cardano is currently ranked 13th with a market value of $9.45 billion. It was pushed down to 14th at one point this year. It has risen more than 6 percent over the past two days and briefly regained $0.27. It remains outside the top 10, while Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC) and Leo (LEO) are ahead of Cardano.

Shah said Cardano could fall out of the top 15 before year-end if the current trend continues. In that case, he estimated Cardano's market value would need to decline by $2.12 billion and the price would have to drop to $0.202.

The basis for the bearish view is network usage, ecosystem visibility and price movement. Shah pointed to Cardano's on-chain activity being relatively quiet compared with rival chains. He said this continues to fuel the 'dead chain' narrative surrounding Cardano.

There is also a counterargument. Global staking platform Everstake assessed Cardano as a healthy network and noted that decentralised finance (DeFi) usage is increasing. It was also mentioned that Cardano's total value locked (TVL) jumped to its highest level in about a year, signaling broader user participation.

Some also said market attention has weakened. Shah said the market's focus has shifted elsewhere as mentions on social media and within the community have declined and speculative momentum has weakened.

On price, Cardano continues to underperform relative to its 2021 peak. Unlike bitcoin and XRP, which recovered or broke above their previous highs in the last cycle, Cardano did not come close to its peak. This was cited as a factor weakening investor sentiment.

Shah cited Zcash, Toncoin (TON), Monero (XMR) and Avalanche (AVAX) as candidates to overtake Cardano. Among them, Zcash has already moved ahead of Cardano at 11th. The gap is not large. Monero is 15th, Toncoin 17th and Avalanche 24th. By market value, Monero and Toncoin, and especially Avalanche, would need to close a gap of at least $2 billion to surpass Cardano.

By contrast, Cardano supporters highlight the ecosystem's large community and continued development. They said network developments such as Ouroborus Leios and Midnight continue to draw attention. They also see Cardano's research-focused approach, long-term infrastructure and security-strengthening strategy as strengths.

It was also mentioned again that Cardano tends to react late in market recoveries. In the previous cycle, there were cases where it moved quietly for a long period before surging after market sentiment improved. Some supporters believe Cardano could instead re-enter the top 5 by market value.

Ultimately, the debate around Cardano narrows to differing assessments between slowing activity and the ecosystem's resilience. In the short term, a key point is whether it can hold its market-value ranking. Over the medium to long term, the main focus is whether the development roadmap and expanding user participation translate into actual price movement.

Cardano will fall out of the top 15 this year. - Barely anyone uses the chain. - No one talks about it. - Activity is dead. - And even the price action has been disappointing — it still hasn’t come anywhere close to reclaiming its 2021 highs. ZEC, TON, XMR, and AVAX will all… pic.twitter.com/xrswyT7AUh