NCSoft's first-quarter operating profit this year is expected to surge 1,681 percent from a year earlier, a forecast showed. An analysis said the revenue structure itself has changed, rather than the gain reflecting only a base effect.

FnGuide, a financial information firm, estimated NCSoft's first-quarter sales at 518.1 billion won, up 43.8 percent from a year earlier. It forecast operating profit of 93.0 billion won, up 1,681.5 percent from 5.2 billion won a year earlier. The quarterly operating profit would already exceed the company's full-year 2025 operating profit of 16.1 billion won.

NCSoft posted 1.5781 trillion won in sales and an operating loss of 109.2 billion won in 2024, recording a large deficit. It then carried out extensive restructuring and cost-efficiency measures. In 2025, it returned to profit with sales of 1.5069 trillion won and operating profit of 16.1 billion won.

◆ A rebound driven by divided roles for two new titles

The key to the latest rebound is Aion2 and Lineage Classic.

Aion2 serves as a stable pillar. After surpassing cumulative sales of 100.0 billion won within 2 months of launch, it has maintained steady traffic and is being reflected in first-quarter results. The effect is also boosted by about 28.0 billion won in sales deferred from the fourth quarter being additionally recognized in the first quarter. Kyobo Securities estimated Aion2's first-quarter sales at 121.1 billion won.

Lineage Classic played the role of a short-term sales driver. After its Feb. 7 launch, it surpassed 50.0 billion won in payments within 3 weeks, exceeding market estimates. DS Investment & Securities estimated Lineage Classic's first-quarter payments at 113.3 billion won. But because 90-day subscription pass sales mean some revenue is deferred to the second quarter, first-quarter results recognized in accounting terms are lower than payments.

As both titles deliver at the same time, an assessment has emerged that multiple revenue pillars are forming, moving away from reliance on a single Lineage franchise.

Ji-hyun Kim (김지현), an analyst at Shinyoung Securities, analyzed that in a situation where new PC MMORPG titles are absent, those in their 20s and 30s are converging on Aion2, while those in their 40s and 50s are converging on Lineage Classic. That means it is not simply a game success, but an expansion of market share by absorbing user bases by generation.

Jun-ho Lee (이준호), an analyst at Hana Securities, analyzed that because the key revenue models of the two games are membership structures based on user traffic, unlike existing MMORPGs that rely heavily on high-spending users, there is limited scope for sales to drop sharply in the early stage after launch.

Cost burdens remain. Higher labor and marketing costs from consolidating subsidiaries Lihuhu and Springcomes, and costs related to disposing of treasury shares, constrain profitability to some extent. Even so, operating profit is expanding sharply because a structure has formed in which revenue scale exceeds cost increases. If the 2025 return to profit was a defensive recovery relying on cost cuts from restructuring, the first quarter of 2026 can be seen as a shift to an aggressive recovery phase in which revenue from successful new titles overwhelms costs.

◆ Sustainability of the structural change is the key

Still, additional confirmation is needed on whether this rebound will lead to a structural transition. The key variable is Aion2's global launch. If the service, currently limited to South Korea and Taiwan, expands to North America and Europe in the second half, the scale of revenue itself changes. Since NCSoft will handle publishing directly, it will be crucial whether it can deliver a different outcome from Throne and Liberty, which experienced declining revenue after launching via Amazon Games.

The mobile casual business is also a mid- to long-term variable. Through the acquisitions of Lihuhu, Springcomes and JustPlay, NCSoft is continuing attempts to move away from an MMORPG-centered portfolio. JustPlay is scheduled to be consolidated in the second quarter.

Dong-woo Kim (김동우), an analyst at Kyobo Securities, assessed it as a turning point away from a structure in which earnings estimates swung sharply depending on the success of a small number of large new titles.

That is why there is a view that portfolio diversification could accelerate in earnest if global launches, new titles in new genres and the mobile casual business are added to the dual pillars of Aion2 and Lineage Classic.

Ultimately, the essence of the rebound lies not in the numbers but in structural change. Lee forecast that the first-quarter performance is likely to continue through the first half of 2027 rather than being a flash in the pan.