On U.S. regulated prediction market Kalshi, the implied probability of U.S. President Donald Trump being impeached has been priced as high as 66.6 percent.

On April 22 local time, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported the contract’s cumulative trading volume had surpassed $2.76 million.

The contract settles as “yes” if the U.S. House of Representatives passes articles of impeachment before January 2028. It does not include a Senate conviction or actual removal from office. The key focus for the market is not whether Trump ultimately leaves office, but the likelihood that an impeachment process at the House level becomes reality.

The implied probability for the impeachment contract started at about 30 percent when the market opened in November 2025 and has more than doubled recently. It rose above 70 percent in March, and despite some pullback has remained high.

The biggest variable participants are watching is the 2026 midterm election. In a separate prediction market, the chance of Democrats winning back control of the House is trading at about 71 percent. The pricing reflects expectations that if Democrats secure a majority, House-led impeachment proceedings could be pushed again as in Trump’s first term.

Walter Bloomberg, who is active on X, said of the trend, “The outcome is still uncertain, but expectations that political issues will grow are being reflected.” Under the structure of the Kalshi contract, the probability can rise even if political pressure alone increases.

Foreign policy factors also had an impact. After Trump’s comments related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, demands emerged within the Democratic Party to push for impeachment or to consider invoking the 25th Amendment, raising political tensions. No formal impeachment proceedings have begun so far.

On the same platform, the probability of “actual removal” is relatively low. That contract, which would require a two-thirds Senate vote or invocation of the 25th Amendment, is trading at about 27 percent. This shows there are high political barriers between a House impeachment and an actual loss of power.

Kalshi’s impeachment contract finalises outcomes based on official congressional records. That makes an actual House vote, rather than political rhetoric or public remarks, the settlement trigger. The market is pricing in potential post-midterm shifts in the balance of power in Congress to match that structure.

Prediction markets do not always reflect reality accurately. Markets were also wrong in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. In that sense, the current levels are closer to a signal of rising political risk than to a sign that impeachment is assured.

The next moves will depend on the November midterm election results and Congress’s response. If clashes over the administration’s foreign policy continue, a widening gap between the likelihood of a House impeachment and the likelihood of actual removal is also expected to be a key point to watch.