[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Tesla will report first-quarter 2026 results after the market close on April 22 local time. Market attention is focused more on a slowdown in demand and inventory burdens in its car business than on autonomous driving or robotics. The electric vehicle outlet Electrek reported the related details.

Tesla earlier released first-quarter production and delivery results. Total production was 408,386 vehicles and deliveries were tallied at 358,023, about 7,600 below the market estimate of 365,645. Production in particular exceeded sales by more than 50,000 vehicles, which is interpreted as a signal of rising inventories. Most of it came from the Model 3 and Y, and the industry sees it as a sign of weaker demand rather than a logistics issue.

Overall growth in scale is expected to be maintained. Based on Wall Street estimates, first-quarter revenue is expected to rise 14 percent from a year earlier to about $22.3 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) is also forecast to be $0.37, up 33 percent from a year earlier. However, Tesla’s internal consensus is more conservative than market expectations, with revenue at $21.4 billion and EPS at $0.33.

The issue is the quality of the growth rate. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, revenue is likely to fall from $24.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Year-on-year growth also reflects the fact that results in the first quarter of 2025 were sharply lowered by a production shutdown linked to the Model Y 'Juniper' revamp. Electrek viewed the growth rate this time as including an optical illusion driven by base effects.

The energy business also fell short of expectations. First-quarter energy storage system (ESS) deployments were 8.8 GWh, down 38 percent from 14.2 GWh in the previous quarter. It also fell well short of the market estimate of 12 to 14 GWh, and a slowdown signal was detected in a segment recently seen as a stable growth pillar.

Profitability metrics are also a key variable. In particular, whether automotive gross margin falls below 17 percent is cited as a major point to watch. As margin pressure continues amid price cuts and intensifying competition, volatility in recent quarterly results has also increased.

Shareholders remain focused on future businesses such as autonomous driving and humanoid robots. Ahead of the earnings release, 872 questions were posted on the shareholder Q&A platform, and the most upvoted questions included the timing of the Optimus v3 unveiling and production start schedule, the timing for expanding unsupervised FSD, and measures for Hardware 3 (HW3) vehicles. Investors are particularly asking about goals for expanding robotaxis beyond Austin and the possibility of generating recurring revenue.

However, analysis that the market’s assessment ultimately depends on the core business is dominant. Tesla has defined itself as an 'AI and robotics company,' but most of its results still come from its car business. Accordingly, the earnings release is expected to be assessed mainly on whether vehicle demand recovers, the pace of clearing inventories, defending margins and the possibility of a rebound in the energy business.

Weakness in the European market and a decline in regulatory credit sales are also cited as burden factors. There is also an assessment that investors’ decisions going forward are likely to be influenced more by the stability and execution capability of the current business than by the future vision.