The remarks show a view that interest rates and AI investment flows are steering the stock market more strongly than geopolitical shocks. [Photo: Shutterstock]

Tensions in the Middle East involving Iran have escalated again, but U.S. stocks have maintained a relatively steady trend, showing a limited reaction despite a sharp rise in oil prices.

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's "Mad Money", recently assessed that markets are responding more to the bond market, corporate earnings and investment flows in artificial intelligence (AI) than to geopolitical shocks.

Over the weekend, news that Iran would blockade the Strait of Hormuz sent global oil prices sharply higher, but the stock market reaction was limited. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose more than 5 percent on the day, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell only 4.87 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq index also slipped just 0.24 percent and 0.26 percent, respectively.

That also contrasts with the strong rally that had continued up to then. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs on April 17. Cramer said such a surge in oil prices would have delivered a bigger shock to stocks in the past.

The first factor he cited was the bond market. The key point was that interest rates barely moved despite the rise in oil prices. That suggests investors are not greatly concerned about a sharp jump in inflation. An analysis also added that expectations for rate cuts are being priced in under a Kevin Warsh-led setup, after President Donald Trump nominated him as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

The second reason was that high oil prices are delivering less of a hit to the real economy than before. Some industries, such as airlines and cruise operators, may face a fuel-cost burden, but the overall economy has become less sensitive to energy prices than in the past, he said. Improved fuel efficiency and wider use of cheaper natural gas in the United States were also cited as factors supporting that shift.

The third was corporate earnings. Cramer emphasized that manufacturing demand is still holding up, as seen in the case of U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs. The company said its order book is being filled as orders from the auto industry continue.

Finally, Cramer pointed to AI as a key pillar supporting the market. He said the AI revolution is not heavily affected by geopolitical variables, and that major technology companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Alphabet are continuing to benefit from expanding investment.

Ultimately, the market's focus is on the response of financial variables rather than the geopolitical event itself. Cramer said the shock to the stock market could be limited unless the situation in the Middle East worsens enough to affect the bond market.

Accordingly, the market's main points to watch will likely depend on whether the rise in oil prices persists, how interest rates respond, and whether corporate earnings and expectations for AI investment can sustain the stock market's current support.

Keyword

#Iran #Jim Cramer #WTI #S&P 500 #Nasdaq
Copyright © DigitalToday. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution are prohibited.