The core issue around John Ternus, who has been mentioned as a candidate for Apple’s next chief executive, is shifting beyond a simple management succession to strategy for the artificial intelligence era. Analysts say a bigger variable is whether Apple can maintain the existing iPhone-centered order or respond to a shift to a new computing paradigm.

Business Insider reported on April 20 that Ternus has proven strengths in product operations and hardware execution. He is seen as far from a founder-type innovator like Steve Jobs. That is similar to current CEO Tim Cook. Cook was a leader strong in operations and supply-chain management rather than a product inventor, but over the past 15 years he sold about 3 billion iPhones and lifted market value to around $4 trillion from $300 billion.

Ternus has followed a similar path. While Cook built a global supply chain capable of mass-producing iPhones, Ternus has overseen engineering to make products work in practice. He strengthened his internal standing by demonstrating execution on major projects such as expanding the iPad lineup, developing AirPods and launching the first 5G iPhone. He is seen as stronger at bringing existing products to market with a high level of completion than at creating new categories.

The question is whether those capabilities will remain effective. So far, they have. Despite criticism that Apple has failed to make the “next iPhone,” rivals also failed to deliver substitute products capable of disrupting the market order, allowing Apple to stick with its existing strategy.

But AI has emerged as a factor that could shake up the landscape. The industry is watching the possibility that AI could form a new center of computing, as the iPhone once did. In that case, analysts say the AI strategy being set now could determine Apple’s future more than who becomes CEO.

Assessments of Apple’s AI strategy are mixed. Unlike rivals such as Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic that are continuing large-scale investment, some view Apple as having fallen behind by taking a relatively cautious approach. Others counter that Apple could pursue a strategy of distributing AI services developed by competitors on an iPhone user base numbering in the tens of billions and securing profits.

Market expectations are already shifting to what comes after the iPhone. Some developers and industry officials believe AI software could eventually create new devices that replace smartphones. The form remains uncertain, but the possibility that leadership in computing could be reshuffled is increasingly being discussed as a realistic scenario.

Some also expect Apple could still maintain an advantageous position in that case. If consumers prefer familiar forms of devices, trust in Apple could continue as a company able to implement them reliably. But if the computing paradigm fundamentally shifts, critics also say leadership centered on optimization and execution alone could hit limits.

If a Ternus era becomes reality, the key question is clear. It is whether Apple can preserve an iPhone-centered ecosystem while responding to a shift to a new AI-based platform. The direction of Apple’s AI strategy is emerging as the core variable that will determine the success or failure of the next CEO.