A forecast says global memory supply may be able to meet only 60 percent of demand through 2027.

The online outlet Gigazine reported on April 20 that expansion centred on high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, for artificial intelligence servers is likely to prolong shortages of general-purpose memory used in smartphones and PCs.

The key is that demand is rising faster than the pace of capacity additions. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron, which account for about 90 percent of the DRAM market, are pursuing capacity expansion, but most new lines are expected to begin full-scale operations in 2027 or 2028. It was also reported that cases where production increases could materialise in 2026 are limited to SK Hynix's Cheongju plant.

Samsung Electronics is building a new DRAM production line at its Pyeongtaek Plant 4 in Gyeonggi, but the line is weighted more toward HBM production for AI than general-purpose DRAM. Even if the plant begins operating in 2026, there is a possibility that stabilising mass production and improving yields could come after 2027.

An analysis also said the currently planned expansions alone would make it hard to keep up with demand. The Nikkei said existing production plans would meet only 60 percent of semiconductor demand. To meet 100 percent of demand, output would need to rise 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027, but Counterpoint Research expected major memory makers' actual production growth to be about 7.5 percent.

Upward pressure on prices is also growing. TrendForce forecast that DRAM contract prices would rise 58 to 63 percent in the second quarter of 2026, and NAND flash contract prices would rise 70 to 75 percent. General-purpose memory prices are already climbing quickly. Contract prices for general-purpose memory for smartphones and PCs in the first quarter of 2026 were reported to have risen 90 percent from the previous quarter.

The impact is being directly reflected in manufacturing costs for finished products. Memory accounts for about 20 percent of the manufacturing cost of entry-level smartphones, but it was forecast to approach 40 percent by mid-2026. Memory shortages are leading to price-hike pressure across smartphones, laptops, VR headsets and handheld game consoles.

Even if supply increases, it is unclear whether the general-purpose market will see immediate relief. The IT outlet The Verge pointed out that many new plants are focused on producing HBM for AI data centres, making it uncertain how much they will ease price rises for home appliances. SK Group's chairman also mentioned that the semiconductor shortage could continue until 2030.

Preemptive volume 확보 by AI companies is also cited as a factor that worsens the supply-demand imbalance. OpenAI is known to be pushing for an HBM supply contract with Samsung Electronics to secure its supply chain directly. OpenAI is planning to receive large-scale supplies of 12-high HBM4 during the second half of 2026, and it has already signed a supply contract with Micron.

In the smartphone market, signs of weakening demand were also confirmed. Counterpoint Research said smartphone shipments in China fell 4 percent in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. Over the same period, Xiaomi fell 35 percent and Apple rose 20 percent. In China, Huawei ranked first with a 20 percent market share, followed by Apple with 19 percent.

India showed a similar trend. Smartphone shipments in India fell 3 percent in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, and prices for more than 80 smartphone models rose an average 15 percent, the tally showed. Apple posted a 9 percent share on demand for the iPhone 17 series, and Google's shipments also rose 39 percent from a year earlier.

Against this backdrop, key variables for future price trends are when the industry's capacity expansion translates into a real increase in supply and whether HBM-focused investment can also ease conditions in the general-purpose memory market.