[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis says XRP’s Binance funding rate is showing a trend similar to the period just before the token renewed its all-time high in July 2025.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 17 that XRP’s negative funding-rate stretch this year is being assessed as resembling the market structure seen before a sharp surge in the past.

Darkpost, an analyst at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant who reviewed funding rates in the Binance futures market, assessed that this year’s XRP funding-rate pattern is similar to July 2025, when XRP rose to $3.6. XRP rose about 127 percent at the time.

Since January, XRP’s Binance funding rate has mostly remained in negative territory. On CryptoQuant charts, the rate has generally moved below -0.005 this year, with occasional sharper drops. On Feb. 6, the funding rate fell to this year’s low of -0.0283, and XRP slid to $1.10 the same day.

As XRP recently moved back above $1.40, the funding rate also turned slightly positive. But looking only at the overall trend this year, Binance traders have generally leaned toward bearish positions. Darkpost viewed this as the market moving closer to a broad market consensus.

He pointed out that imbalances arise when many traders crowd into the same direction. He also said such consensus often forms late, after a trend has already progressed significantly, and that could lead the market to move in the opposite direction. He said the market is placing more weight on the possibility of further declines even though XRP is still more than 60 percent below the $3.66 peak it recorded in July 2025.

A similar scene played out in the past. When XRP began to fall back from $3 in early March 2025, Binance funding rates turned negative and stayed below -0.003 for several weeks, with short positions dominant. On April 4, 2025, XRP fell below $2 and the funding rate dropped to -0.03, the lowest level within a year at the time.

As prices recovered from late April 2025, the funding rate turned positive again. Even when XRP was trading around $2, the funding rate held in a mild positive range. The upward move continued through late June and early July, and XRP reached $3.6 on July 21, 2025. During that process, the funding rate also rose quickly alongside the price gains.

The current phase also resembles April 2025 in that funding rates are improving along with a price rebound. Darkpost said that the last time these conditions appeared, XRP went on to a strong rise. But he added he did not view the market now as completely the same as then, and said traders need to take a cautious approach because market conditions across altcoins remain difficult.

Numerically, if a 127 percent rise like the past is repeated, XRP could climb above $3 from current levels to reach about $3.178. But he said this is only a calculation that simply applies the past gain, and the actual market still depends on whether funding rates and price recovery can continue together. In the end, the key point to watch in this phase is whether the bearish sentiment that leaned toward negative funding rates turns into a reversal signal.