[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Silver prices have rebounded 33 percent over the past three weeks, but an analysis said a trend reversal depends on breaking above $84.29.

On April 15 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that silver rose 7.2 percent over the past week, recouping most of its monthly losses. It is trading around $79.50 an ounce.

A weaker dollar was cited first as a driver of the rebound. Silver has stayed within a descending channel on the daily chart since Jan. 29. When silver slid to $60.86 an ounce on March 23, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) formed a peak around 99.40. Silver rebounded after the dollar index turned lower from April 8. The dollar index is now around 99.20, down more than 2 percent over the past month.

Dollar demand also fell as inflation expectations eased after oil prices slid to $100 on the impact of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. That prompted a flow of funds into precious metals. Still, a price rebound alone makes it difficult to conclude a trend change. Silver remains inside the descending channel that has lasted since late January, and a break above the upper trendline is needed to confirm a shift in structure.

Options market indicators showed a similar change. The put-call open interest ratio for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), a spot silver exchange-traded fund (ETF), fell to 0.59 on April 14 from 0.63 on March 20, and the volume ratio over the same period dropped to 0.45 from 0.86. That suggests bearish bets are declining. Implied volatility was measured at 58.31 percent and the IV percentile at 73 percent, indicating volatility is high compared with the past year. An interpretation said a falling put-call ratio alongside high implied volatility increases the likelihood of a directional move.

The key level is $84.29. The zone overlaps the upper trendline of the descending channel and a major technical resistance level, and stands 6.46 percent above the current price. If silver closes above that line on a daily basis, it would break out of the descending channel for the first time since Jan. 29. In that case, the next target levels are cited as $91.46, $98.63 and $108.67. The all-time high of $121.84 recorded on Jan. 29 is above those levels.

If it fails to break above $84, silver is likely to remain rangebound within the channel. In particular, a drop below $75.42, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, could be interpreted as a sign of renewed dollar strength or weakening ceasefire expectations. In that case, the price could retreat to around $61.08.

The rebound is ultimately described as a move driven by a weaker dollar, expectations for industrial demand and improved sentiment in the options market. If the chart fails to confirm it, the 33 percent rise may amount to a temporary recovery rather than a trend reversal.