[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Nvidia has shown signs of a rebound by breaking above a six-month declining channel, but an analysis says leadership of the rise still lies with the broader semiconductor sector.

According to blockchain outlet BeInCrypto on Tuesday (local time), Nvidia closed at $196.51, up 3.8 percent from the previous session, extending gains for a fourth straight session. The rise is technically significant because the stock broke above the upper boundary of a declining channel that has run since late October last year for the first time.

Nvidia shares have stayed within a declining channel on the daily chart since Oct. 29, 2025, with each rebound attempt capped by resistance at the upper boundary. This time, the stock broke through that zone on rising volume. Volume on the breakout day was tallied at about 161.31 million shares.

The volume trend is also being read as a positive signal. The analysis said buying dominance continued for four straight sessions, gradually building upward pressure. Still, another view says it is difficult to judge the quality of the rise based only on a price breakout.

The key point is that Nvidia may have ridden sector strength rather than leading the market. In relative performance versus the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), SOXX has moved more strongly since Feb. 10 while Nvidia has been comparatively weak. SOXX is up about 28 percent so far this year, while Nvidia has gained about 4 percent, a gap of 24 percentage points.

The sector strength has been supported by earnings at major companies and the macro environment. The analysis cited TSMC's record results, a large contract by AI infrastructure company CoreWeave and a softened producer price index, saying they provided upward pressure across the semiconductor sector.

In the derivatives market, optimism and caution are appearing at the same time. Nvidia's put-to-call volume ratio fell to 0.41 on April 14 from 0.69 on Feb. 10, suggesting an increase in bullish bets. By contrast, the open interest ratio showed little change at around 0.85, which is seen as indicating that existing hedges are being maintained.

A key point to watch is whether the stock breaks through major price levels. Nvidia has moved above $193.88, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. If it holds above that level at the close, the breakout could be seen as valid. The next resistance is $201.92, which corresponds to the 0.786 Fibonacci level and aligns with the psychological resistance at $200. After that, $212.17 is presented as the next target, overlapping with the October high last year.

If the stock falls back below $193.88, upward momentum could weaken. The near-term support level is $188.23, with $182.58 cited as the next support zone if losses extend. The level at which the break from the declining channel is invalidated is below $164.28.

Ultimately, an assessment says whether the rebound can last depends on whether Nvidia can narrow its performance gap versus the sector. If Nvidia can sustain an independent rise even as the broader semiconductor uptrend slows, it could regain its status as a lead stock. If it relies only on the sector rally, the breakout could end up as a temporary rebound, the analysis said.