An analysis says XRP is again showing a retest of the downtrend line seen just before its sharp rise in March.

On April 13, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that trader Swarmik said XRP could try an upside breakout after testing the same trend line for a third time.

XRP has stayed weak since hitting a high of $1.6 on March 17. It rose on a broader market rebound as the United States-Iran conflict unfolded, but has since fallen more than 16 percent and is now trading around $1.33.

Swarmik previously said he entered an XRP short position early this month and made a profit on last month’s trade. He said that this time, after an initial decline, the price is moving sideways on a mid-timeframe chart. After the March 17 high, XRP fell 20 percent to $1.27 on April 5.

He pointed to a downtrend line formed after a high of $1.67 on Feb. 15. The line has since acted as resistance for XRP. During the rebound after the April 5 low, XRP tested the line twice but failed to break through both times. The first retest came at $1.39 on April 7 and the second at $1.375 over the latest weekend.

Swarmik said a third retest toward the same trend line could occur again. It could fall again in that process, but he sees it as a move that could build momentum for an upside break of the trend line. He said he is not optimistic, but a small rebound is possible.

He cited a similar move last month as the basis for the outlook. After a high of $1.67 in mid-February, XRP tested the same downtrend line three times during a rebound, at $1.49 on Feb. 25, $1.47 on March 4 and $1.45 on March 13. All three attempts were blocked by resistance, but after the third try it broke the trend line and rose to $1.6 on March 17. The gain after the breakout point exceeded 13 percent.

Swarmik said a similar move could follow a third retest this time as well. He added that the outlook is an estimate based on chart patterns.