[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Silver is entering a technical breakout zone around $77 an ounce, raising the possibility of a triple-digit price.

On April 8 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto said silver traded at $77.31. It said a cup pattern formed on the 12-hour chart, opening 32 percent upside potential.

The move is tied to the aftermath of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Brent crude fell 15 percent after the ceasefire, and the dollar index (DXY) slid to 98.69, down 1.63 percent from its April 6 high. A weaker dollar typically supports silver prices because it reduces the burden of buying silver for holders of other currencies.

On the chart, the cup pattern that has continued since mid-March is nearing completion. The slight pullback after a recent high of $77.73 was interpreted as forming the final handle phase. Momentum indicators, however, showed hidden bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI), with the RSI making a higher high while prices made a lower high. It signals that the pullback near the neckline could extend.

A deeper pullback does not immediately invalidate the pattern. The handle phase typically involves a retracement before an upside break. The key is the size of the pullback. If dollar weakness and the oil decline continue, the handle could form shallowly, but if the macro environment wobbles, the chance of pattern failure remains. If the ceasefire loses momentum or the dollar rebounds, the cup pattern could shift from a confirmed breakout to a failed pattern.

Market sentiment was partly reflected in options. The put-call ratio for the iShares Silver Trust (iShares Silver Trust·SLV) fell to 0.47 on April 7 from 0.67 on April 6. The open interest ratio also edged down to 0.59 from 0.60. Both measures were below 1.0, showing call buying outpacing put buying. It means some bearish bets were unwound as the macro environment shifted after the ceasefire.

The futures market, by contrast, has yet to show tightness in spot supply and demand. The price gap between the front-month and next-month silver futures was -0.55, a contango in which the next-month contract is more expensive. It suggests buyers are not rushing immediate delivery. In early February and early March, the spread jumped to 7.875 and 6.515, respectively, when physical demand pressure was strong alongside a sharp rise in silver prices.

For that reason, a $100 view will not be determined by technical patterns alone. Contango does not block a rally, but it suggests the current rise is being driven more by macro positioning than by physical supply pressure. For a sustained breakout, the futures spread needs to move back close to 0 or turn positive so that real demand follows prices.

Key price levels are also clear. The $77.29 to $77.73 range is the cup pattern neckline. If the 12-hour close rises above $77.73, the breakout is confirmed. Above that, $79.12 was presented as the first confirmation zone. A move beyond it would make $85.07 the first major target. If momentum holds, $94.69 and $102.29 were cited as the next target zones.

Two points will be watched next: whether the dollar index extends weakness below 98.69, and whether the contango in silver futures spreads narrows again. For the $100 target to materialise, both dollar weakness and a narrowing contango in futures must be maintained at the same time. If those conditions are not met, silver prices could slow their rise around $85.