Bitcoin has formed a bullish continuation pattern on the daily chart, raising the possibility it could break above $78,000.

On April 8, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that bitcoin has risen 4.80 percent over the past week and is trading around $71,000. It said the current chart structure, if confirmed, could open room for about 11 percent additional upside.

The key is a cup-and-handle pattern formed from late March to April 7. The pattern features a rounded rebound followed by a short pullback, and is typically classified as a structure that appears when an uptrend continues. In this move, the late-March correction formed the cup’s bottom, and the pullback after the April 7 high corresponds to the handle.

Volume trends also aligned with the pattern. Selling pressure during the handle was noticeably lower than the buying volume that drove the rise in the cup portion. Some analysts pointed to the drop in volume in that section as a sign that selling is thinning rather than gaining strength.

Fund flows also pointed in the same direction as the chart. Weekly inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds surged from $22.34 million in the week ended April 2 to $312.27 million in the week ended April 7, an increase of about 1,300 percent. Global asset manager Morgan Stanley also began trading its spot bitcoin ETF, MSBT, on April 8, with a total expense ratio of 0.14 percent.

Still, ETF flows alone cannot be used to definitively judge the conviction of spot market participants. Actual spot demand appeared more clearly in exchange indicators. The change in net exchange position deepened from minus 30,727 BTC on April 6 to minus 37,472 BTC on April 7. A negative figure means more bitcoin left exchanges than entered. With outflow intensity up 22 percent in a single day, the report raised the possibility that holders are moving bitcoin to off-exchange custody at a faster pace.

Such moves could reduce spot selling supply coming to market. If ETF inflows increase while exchange balances decline at the same time, conditions for a price rise could improve further. It also suggests the current uptrend is not driven only by leveraged speculation but is accompanied by real demand.

A near-term inflection point is the release of the U.S. March consumer price index on April 11. The market expects a 3.3 percent rise from a year earlier, and if bitcoin rises even when inflation comes in above expectations, the narrative of bitcoin as an inflation hedge could strengthen. Conversely, even if selling emerges after the release, the report said the ETF and spot fund flows could support the market, making it more likely that the move remains a pullback within the handle rather than breaking the pattern.

By price level, $71,649 was cited as the first confirmation zone. If bitcoin regains that level on a daily closing basis, it could be interpreted as a signal that the handle is complete. The next key resistance is $73,238, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The analysis said a daily close above that price would confirm the pattern and could open a target of $78,383. The $73,238 level was presented as a key dividing line between an upside breakout and a pullback within the handle.

On the downside, $70,060 was presented as the first support. If bitcoin falls below $68,093, the handle structure could weaken significantly. If it drops below $64,915, the bottom of the cup, the pattern becomes invalid.

Bitcoin is heading into the inflation data with a simultaneous test of a technical resistance break and improving supply-demand conditions. With ETF inflows expanding and exchange outflows deepening, the report said the breakout will likely hinge on whether bitcoin regains $71,649 and $73,238.