SK Hynix's chances of a first-quarter earnings surprise have increased. Samsung Electronics beat the highest brokerage estimate by nearly 20 trillion won, and SK Hynix, operating in the same memory market, is also likely to top the consensus. NAND operating profit is estimated to have surged 150-fold from a year earlier, emerging as an additional surprise factor. The outlook is that the two biggest memory makers will post results that exceed market expectations in succession.

Brokerage consensus for SK Hynix's first-quarter operating profit is about 35.2 trillion won. By firm, Hana Securities estimated 36.9 trillion won, Mirae Asset Securities 38.9 trillion won and Daishin Securities 39.6 trillion won. SK Hynix posted EPS surprises for four consecutive quarters through the previous fourth quarter. The beat ranged from at least 5.9 percent to as much as 73.5 percent, and in last year's fourth quarter it posted an EPS surprise of 22.6 percent and a revenue surprise of 6.9 percent. Given the scale of Samsung Electronics' outperformance, SK Hynix is also expected to beat the highest estimate.

Multiple factors are also underpinning expectations of an estimate beat. Hana Securities said that, in addition to solid server demand, mobile and PC customers appeared to have accelerated memory purchases to avoid additional price increases in the second and third quarters. It also estimated that mobile price increases widened as global big tech companies including Apple used a period of rising memory costs as an opportunity to expand market share.

The spread of long-term agreements also began to have an impact from this quarter. Mirae Asset Securities said big tech customers are actively signing long-term contracts of three years or more based on prepayments and are prioritising securing volumes over price. Daishin Securities analysed that, with DRAM capacity limited through the end of 2027, supply concerns among customers that fail to secure supply in advance will further raise suppliers' pricing power. It said that ROE in the 60 percent range could be sustained even if only long-term contract prices are maintained.

In second-quarter negotiations, B2C customers are also said to be accepting price increases to some extent despite cost burdens. Daishin Securities forecast that the average selling price of commodity DRAM in 2026 will rise 253 percent from a year earlier, up from its previous forecast of 218 percent. Current estimates for SK Hynix's annual operating profit are 231.7 trillion won from Hana Securities and 254.4 trillion won from Mirae Asset Securities.

NAND ASP seen up 164 percent, rivaling DRAM turnaround

A variable drawing more attention than DRAM is NAND memory business performance. According to Kyobo Securities, NAND export value in March rose 81 percent from the previous month to $2.5 billion, while export prices increased 22 percent. It analysed that a surge in enterprise SSD orders and long-term supply contracts drove price increases. Hana Securities estimated SK Hynix's first-quarter NAND operating profit at 6.3 trillion won, with an operating margin of 50 percent. That is 150 times the year-earlier level of 42.0 billion won.

Structurally, conditions are also falling into place for a broader expansion in NAND demand. Product diversification is accelerating, including enterprise SSDs, KV cache and HBF, as AI inference expansion leads to memory tiering. Kyobo Securities forecast that the share of server SSD demand will expand to 41 percent in 2026 and 54 percent in 2028 from 29 percent in 2025. Demand is rising while suppliers maintain a minimal investment stance, a structure that could trigger a price surprise. Daishin Securities also forecast that NAND ASP in 2026 will rise 164 percent from a year earlier, up from its previous forecast of 114 percent.

SK Hynix's moves to expand its NAND business also support that view. On April 8, SK Hynix said it completed development of the 321-layer QLC NAND-based client SSD, PQC21, and will begin full-scale supply starting with Dell Technologies. IDC forecast that the share of QLC NAND in the global consumer cSSD market will rise to 61 percent in 2027, about three times larger than in 2025. Such expansion of a high-capacity, high-efficiency product lineup could be a factor lifting SK Hynix's NAND results from the second quarter. SK Hynix is scheduled to announce its 2026 first-quarter results at 3 p.m. on April 29.