As XRP approaches the upper band of a months-long downtrend channel, talk is resurfacing about the possibility of a technical breakout.

The Crypto Basic reported on April 6 that XRP rose 2.34 percent over the past 24 hours to trade around $1.31, but the broader move remains within the downtrend that has continued since July 2025.

The key point is not the short-term rebound itself, but whether XRP can break above the downtrend channel formed on the daily chart. XRP slipped to around $1.27 over the weekend before rebounding, recovering 5.51 percent from the low. Even so, since a sharp drop from $3.6 in July 2025, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows has continued, and the decline from that peak stands at 63 percent.

Market analyst Don (돈) pointed to this pattern as having formed a downtrend channel. In a downtrend channel, the upper descending trendline acts as resistance and the lower descending trendline acts as support, with both lines sloping lower over time. Don mentioned, "Where is the XRP army?" and suggested the price is now closer to the channel top, raising the likelihood of a breakout.

That zone has repeatedly capped gains in the past. XRP rose to $3.18 in September 2025 and to $3.10 in early October. It attempted rebounds to $2.41 in January 2026 and to $1.6 in March, but each time met resistance at the channel’s upper trendline. That means it is hard to be certain of a trend reversal until a break above the upper trendline is confirmed.

Don said that if an upside break occurs from current levels, momentum could turn bullish and open the way to an attempt at a new high. He set a medium-term target of $4.0685, which he calculated implies upside potential of 203 percent from the current price. He added that there were cases in the past where a similar downtrend channel formed and a break led to continued gains. After a $3.4 peak in January 2025, XRP formed a downtrend channel for months, then broke out in July 2025 and rose to $3.6 to set an all-time high.

XRP is currently trading near the top of the channel. If additional gains push it above $1.5, it could again test the upper trendline. More than the size of the short-term rebound, whether it can clear the repeatedly tested upper resistance has emerged as a key variable for the next direction.

where is the $XRP Army? pic.twitter.com/u96PUlhWeT