[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Smartphone prices could rise sharply again, a forecast showed.

On April 3, U.S. time, IT outlet PhoneArena cited a Counter Research report as saying that a sharp rise in memory prices is pushing up manufacturing costs and increasing pressure to raise consumer prices.

The report’s key variable is memory. The analysis showed memory prices have risen by about 50 percent over several months in 2025, and another 50 percent increase is expected in the first quarter of 2026. A scenario in which prices rise a further 20 percent by late June has also been discussed, raising the possibility that cumulative gains could widen sharply in a short period. If the trend continues, smartphone makers’ cost structures could change, the report said.

Counterpoint used an “accessible flagship” smartphone with a wholesale price of about $800 as an example, saying memory costs could account for about 40 percent of the total bill of materials. That is about three times higher than a year earlier. As a result, the cost of producing a premium smartphone could rise by more than $150 by mid-2026 compared with early 2025, it forecast.

The problem is that the cost increase is likely to be passed on to consumers. The report forecast that makers could raise final retail prices by more than $200, or by more than 25 percent. The so-called value-for-money flagship segment priced at $700 to $999 grew the fastest in 2025, posting a 25 percent rise in sales from a year earlier, but whether demand can be maintained if prices rise again by 25 to 30 percent was cited as a key variable.

Signs of price increases are already appearing in some products. Samsung Electronics kept the top-end model price unchanged in the Galaxy S26 series unveiled in February, but raised prices of the base and Plus models by $100 each. The industry is interpreting this as a signal that major manufacturers have begun gradual price adjustments.

The more prices rise, the greater the burden on makers to persuade consumers. The report pointed to perceptible upgrades such as the latest chipset, improved camera performance and better battery efficiency as no longer optional but essential. It said demand would be difficult to maintain through price increases alone.

Separately, it forecast that global smartphone shipments in 2026 could fall about 12 percent from a year earlier due to the impact of rising memory prices. That could be the biggest annual drop on record. Lower-priced smartphones, which bear a heavier burden from component costs, are expected to be hit harder, making changes in demand across the market unavoidable.