[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,055, with the rising channel that has continued since late February being put to the test. On April 3, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that the channel is showing a smart money indecision, bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) and a repeating pattern of whale accumulation at the same time.

Ethereum has moved within an upward channel on an 8-hour chart since Feb. 24. This is seen as virtually the only bullish structure Ethereum has maintained since a sharp drop in early February, but there is an assessment that internal signals are gradually weakening.

The smart money index (SMI), first, is intertwined with its signal line and is failing to show a clear direction. The entangled movement of the two lines is read as suggesting that even participants with an information edge have not fixed a direction. A recent run of doji candles on the 8-hour chart also supports the view that neither buyers nor sellers have taken control.

Such stagnation has appeared before just ahead of past sharp declines. In early January, the SMI hugged the signal line, then broke down after a short-term rebound, and in that stretch Ethereum fell 43 percent from $3,042 on Jan. 28 to $1,742 on Feb. 6. The current flat SMI trend is seen as structurally similar to that period.

The RSI also tilts to the bearish side. From Feb. 25 to April 1, the price made higher highs within the channel, but the RSI showed bearish divergence by making lower highs. This is read as a sign that the momentum supporting the price rise is weakening, and some analysis suggests Ethereum has already entered a pullback zone after the divergence was confirmed.

On-chain data show whale accumulation continues. According to data from on-chain analysis firm Santiment, holdings in whale wallets excluding exchange addresses increased to 122.98 million ETH on April 3 from 121.69 million ETH on March 24. That is about 1.29 million ETH, worth about $2.65 billion at prices at the time. Still, as whales did not stop buying during the sharp decline from Jan. 28 to Feb. 6, some have warned that this accumulation could be a familiar trap rather than a sign of conviction.

The key level is $2,024, the lower end of the rising channel. Ethereum is currently moving between Fibonacci 0.5 ($2,093) and 0.618 ($2,024), and analysis suggests that a daily close below $2,024 could damage the rising structure. In that case, the next support levels mentioned are $1,925 (0.786), followed by the $1,800 range.

On the other hand, a recovery to $2,162 is seen as needed first for the bearish scenario to lose force. That level is the 0.382 Fibonacci and near the April 1 swing high. Regaining it could be interpreted as a sign that smart money has chosen a direction and that weakening momentum has eased somewhat. If Ethereum also rises above $2,387, some suggest the bullish view could regain strength.