A claim has emerged that major U.S. trading firm Jane Street has been carrying out “program selling” to push Bitcoin (BTC) down artificially every day shortly after the U.S. stock market opens. Market experts countered that the pattern is not statistically consistent and that it would be difficult for a single institution to influence the Bitcoin price over the long term.

According to foreign media reports including blockchain outlet Cointelegraph on Feb. 26, some investors said Jane Street has applied repeated selling pressure around 10 a.m. Eastern time. The suspicions spread shortly after Terraform Labs filed a lawsuit against Jane Street. The lawsuit includes allegations of insider trading linked to the collapse of an algorithmic stablecoin in May 2022.

Crypto influencer Justin Bechler pointed to reports that Jane Street holds about $790 million of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). He said the position could be offset through put-option hedges, short-futures arbitrage and collar strategies, making its net Bitcoin exposure potentially “zero or negative”. That would mean the apparent size of its spot ETF holdings could differ from its actual market-direction bet.

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno said the structure is more likely part of a delta-neutral strategy that combines spot buying with futures selling than market manipulation by a specific institution. He described it as a typical arbitrage model aimed at spread returns and operated regardless of market direction.

Jane Street's latest 13-F filing was found to include not only Bitcoin ETFs but also positions in major mining companies such as Bitfarms, Cipher Mining and Hut 8.

On-chain analyst Nonzee cited a Bitcoin chart to claim Jane Street manipulated the market at 10 a.m. each day. Market-monitoring account Whale Factor also said a 2 to 3 percent decline pattern has repeated shortly after the U.S. open since November 2023, raising the possibility of a liquidity-absorption strategy to buy ETFs at a discount.

Macroeconomic analyst Alex Kruger countered that since Jan. 1, Bitcoin's cumulative return in the 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. window has instead been positive, at about 0.9 percent. He said the claim that systemic selling repeats every day at 10 a.m. is not statistically supported.

Nick Puckrin, co-founder of education platform Coin Bureau, said Bitcoin's price moves are determined by a mix of factors including geopolitical risk, global liquidity and AI-related investment crowding. He stressed that Bitcoin is not an asset that a single institution can control.

Some in the market also mention the possibility that the lawsuit surrounding Jane Street had a psychological effect, such as “removal of bad news” or “weakening of short sellers”. But no clear evidence has been presented so far that any specific institution structurally controlled prices.

CryptoQuant said the “10 a.m. dump” theory is widely viewed as closer to a hypothesis raised during a phase of growing market anxiety. Given the crypto market's high volatility and complex supply-and-demand structure, it said claims that a single player controls price trends over a long period need careful verification.