In recent weeks of selling across the cryptocurrency market, XRP has fallen more sharply than bitcoin, ether and solana. Since the 4th, XRP has dropped 23.4 percent, far outpacing declines over the same period in ether at 18.2 percent, solana at 17 percent and bitcoin at 10.4 percent.

Crypto Basic reported on the 11th that market analyst Egrag Crypto (이그랙 크립토) cited three reasons for XRP’s relative weakness: liquidations of leveraged positions, selling by early holders and the possibility of market manipulation. He put the likelihood of each factor contributing to the drop at 30 percent, 20 percent and 50 percent, respectively.

XRP recently traded around $1.06. It is down 15.4 percent on the week and about 25 percent on the month. It also traded below its 20-day moving average of $1.25, 50-day moving average of $1.36 and 200-day moving average of $1.27.

The first factor cited was forced liquidations of leveraged long positions in the derivatives market. CoinGlass data showed about $39 million in XRP long positions were liquidated on the 8th alone, while short liquidations totalled $366,000. Long liquidations were about 33 times larger than shorts. The explanation was that as prices fall, long positions that no longer meet margin requirements can be forcibly closed on exchanges, adding to selling, which can then lead to further price declines and cascading liquidations. Another analysis said substantial long exposure remains below the current price, which could increase liquidation pressure if prices fall further.

The second factor was profit-taking by early XRP holders. Egrag Crypto put the likelihood at 20 percent. He said early investors who bought XRP at lower prices in the past could still be sitting on significant unrealised gains despite the recent decline, and some may sell and move into other assets. Such selling could add persistent downward pressure as large holdings gradually enter the market, rather than hitting as abruptly as forced liquidations.

The factor given the highest likelihood was market manipulation. Egrag Crypto rated it at 50 percent, raising the possibility that large players are targeting thin-liquidity areas to induce retail investors to sell. CryptoQuant data also showed whale activity in XRP spot and futures markets favouring selling. On-chain analysts also pointed to unusual whale moves tied to liquidity changes at major exchanges. Signs were detected that large holders moved billions of XRP, and he said those moves may have affected prices.

Still, it remains difficult to conclude whether large holders are accumulating or selling. If large investors are absorbing supply coming to market, it could signal price stabilisation or a rebound, but if they are selling alongside other participants, it could lead to additional downside pressure.

Egrag Crypto pointed to $1.00 to $1.04 as a key support zone for XRP. For a rebound, it would first need to regain $1.15 and then move back above $1.25. If selling persists, the next support is around $0.99. That would be the lowest closing level in more than a year. He also cited whether funds flow back into spot XRP exchange-traded funds as a factor that could determine whether it recovers.