A claim has emerged that XRP's average November return of 80.2 percent is a distorted figure that does not reflect actual trends.

Blockchain outlet U.Today reported on Oct. 31 local time that a simple average of 13 years of past data makes it look like a big rally, but the median, which shows the distribution, was tallied at minus 10 percent.

The problem is asymmetric returns. CryptoRank data shows XRP's average November gain at 80.2 percent, but a 531.9 percent surge in 2013 and a 281.7 percent rise in 2024 pushed up the overall figure. In most cycles, XRP ended November weaker. The mean alone can inflate bullish expectations, but past price action did not match that.

Recent price action is also far from statistical optimism. XRP fell 15.7 percent in October and is down 16.3 percent in the fourth quarter so far. The price has dropped below $1.30, cited as a key support level, and is trading around $1.25 to $1.26, showing a short-term downtrend.

Even the median is not an absolute yardstick. The 13 observations are a small sample and market structure has changed. In particular, after a spot XRP exchange-traded fund launched in mid-November 2025, a channel for institutional inflows emerged that did not exist in earlier cycles. That is why past statistics alone have limits in explaining this November.

Supply and demand burdens were also cited as a short-term variable. On Nov. 1, 1 billion XRP was unlocked from Ripple's escrow wallet. That amount does not necessarily flow straight into the market, and Ripple has typically returned 600 million to 800 million XRP into new escrow contracts. That leaves the actual increase in circulating supply closer to 200 million to 400 million XRP.

The market was also said to be under pressure after more than $1.29 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated following a recent Binance security incident. With XRP rising 48 percent in the third quarter for its strongest third-quarter performance in the past four years, the current pullback was described as also reflecting profit-taking after the rally.

Not only a downside scenario is on the table. Some excessive leverage has been cleared, and if open interest does not recover quickly while funding rates remain negative, the possibility of a short squeeze also remains. In that case, a retest of the $1.30 to $1.32 zone could become more likely than the statistics suggest.

The short-term turning point is relatively clear. If the $1.20 to $1.17 range breaks down, a path could open toward the psychological support level of $1 and a local low of $0.98. If buying pushes the price back above $1.30 to $1.32 and it succeeds in holding that area on a weekly closing basis, a return to an uptrend could be expected. Ultimately, the XRP market in November remains more dependent on current supply-demand and liquidity, and on defending key price levels, than on past average returns.