Dogecoin fell 20.1% in October, again missing expectations for “Uptober,” a term for seasonal strength in the cryptocurrency market.

On Oct. 31, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that Dogecoin’s October return was -20.1%, based on CryptoRank data. That followed a 20% drop in the same month last year, marking a similar decline for a second straight year.

October is generally seen as a month when major cryptocurrencies have historically shown strength, giving rise to the term “Uptober”. But Dogecoin, the largest memecoin by market capitalisation, failed to avoid weakness again this year despite those expectations.

The drop also ended a rally that had extended for two straight months in August and September. Dogecoin rose 31.2% from July to September and ended the third quarter at $0.09447. It then slid to as low as $0.07197 in October, giving back a large part of those gains. Still, past monthly returns do not guarantee future price direction, and a second straight October decline alone makes it difficult to conclude that seasonal weakness has become entrenched.

The gain needed to recover losses is also larger than the decline. Based on the monthly return of -20.1%, it would need to rise about 25.2% to return to its pre-drop level. Even if a short-term rebound appears, additional gains would be needed to recoup all of October’s losses.

To judge the nature of any rebound ahead, it is also necessary to compare its movement with the broader cryptocurrency market. It is important to distinguish between a rise that comes with a general market recovery and a separate revival in demand for Dogecoin. Whether price gains are accompanied by higher trading volume is also a gauge of how sustainable any recovery may be.

Market attention is focused on how much Dogecoin can make up for October’s decline in November and December. With expectations for seasonal strength having fallen short, whether buying interest recovers by year-end is expected to shape the trend ahead.