[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] An analysis said bitcoin on-chain indicators suggest the early stage of a new uptrend.

Cointelegraph reported on the 27th that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant focused on a decline beginning in the share of the total realised market cap held by bitcoin that has not moved for more than 18 months.

Realised market cap is an indicator that totals value based on the price of each bitcoin when it last moved on-chain. In CryptoQuant tallies, the realised market cap share of holdings unmoved for more than 18 months stood at 26.98 percent on Sept. 16, the highest since mid-November 2024. More recently it edged down to 26.59 percent.

CryptoQuant explained that in the past, a pattern repeated in which this share rose, then turned to a decline, followed by a strong bull market. It said the current change is small, suggesting the signal may be at an early stage before it fully develops. It added that this is a time when both upside potential and the duration of a rally can be viewed positively.

A drop in long-term investors' on-chain activity was interpreted as a move to keep holding bitcoin rather than take profits. This group's realised market cap share has been on a broad upward trend since November 2025, and profit-taking increased during bitcoin's slide from its all-time high of $126,200.

By holding period, the only long-term holder cohort currently in net loss is the 18 months to 2 years group. Their average purchase price is $93,193. Bitcoin fell below this cohort's average purchase price after the 2025 all-time high, but cohorts that held longer remain in profit overall. CryptoQuant data showed 2026 as the first bear market in which bitcoin's price stayed above the average purchase price of the 2 to 3 years cohort.

On the supply side, signs of easing pressure are also emerging. Galaxy Digital said in a report last week that this bear market's maximum drawdown from the all-time high was 53 percent, the smallest among past bear markets. It focused in particular on a decline in movements of long-dormant holdings that had previously capped gains.

Galaxy Digital said bitcoin that had not moved for more than 5 years moved an average of 67,000 BTC a month in 2024 and 47,000 BTC a month in 2025. It said a total of 1.11 million BTC has moved since October 2024, with a substantial portion absorbed by exchange-traded funds and companies holding bitcoin as a treasury asset. It added that this supply near $126,200 weighed on prices by blocking further gains.

By contrast, the monthly average movement of holdings dormant for more than 5 years has fallen to 34,000 BTC in 2026. That is about half the 2024 level, prompting an interpretation that slowing movements of supply that previously constrained price gains could support a new long-term uptrend.

A slowdown in profit-taking by long-term holders and a decline in movements of dormant supply are key variables for judging the durability of any future uptrend. The analysis placed weight on the possibility that bitcoin is moving into a phase in which it is absorbing selling pressure and strengthening holding.