A simulation found that even if bitcoin breaks above its all-time high again, the rally may not continue.

On Oct. 27, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate ran a bitcoin price simulation using Coin Metrics daily price data. It resampled returns in 7-day blocks from Oct. 26, 2023 to Oct. 26, 2026 to construct 100,000 scenarios, with a starting price set at about $79,950.

The analysis showed that 50.4% of scenarios exceeded the all-time high (ATH) of $126,198 at least once within a year, based on daily closing prices. By contrast, only 34.8% were still above that level after one year.

The gap between the two ratios is 15.6 percentage points. That means about one-sixth of all scenarios broke above the record high but fell back below it a year later. Even in cases that were above the record after a year, prices did not stay at that level continuously after the breakout.

Considerable volatility also appeared in the process of regaining the record. In scenarios that exceeded the record within a year, the median time to the first breakout was 189 days. Before the breakout, the median maximum drawdown from the most recent peak was 18.9%.

Past cases also show that reclaiming a record high does not necessarily lead to a stable uptrend. Of seven cases since 2013 in which prices fell more than 30% from a record close and later regained the prior record, four fell back below the previous high again within 30 days of the recovery. However, the result is based only on cases that successfully regained the record, making it difficult to interpret as a general probability.

These figures are simulation results based on specific assumptions and do not represent probabilities in the actual market. The key point is that investors should look not only at whether the record is reached but also at drawdowns on the way there and subsequent price moves.

Even under the same record-recovery scenario, investment results can differ depending on the timing of purchases and the holding period. The analysis showed that expectations of reaching a target price alone are not enough to explain losses during the recovery process or the risk of a renewed decline.