An analysis said XRP has repeated rising and falling phases in 12 to 14-month intervals since 2020, and if the pattern continues the next major trend reversal could be around July 2027.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 23 that XRP is now in the early stage of a new rising phase that began around August 2026.

The core of the analysis lies in the passage of time rather than the size of price moves. XRP's monthly chart has broadly formed alternating up-and-down phases of 12 to 14 months since 2020. Based on the recent cycle structure, the pattern since 2023 has appeared more regular: 1 year down, 1 year up, then 1 year down again.

The first major rising phase lasted about 13 months. XRP rose to $1.65 on May 1, 2021 from $0.219 on May 1, 2020. A downtrend then continued for 14 months and, although there were interim rebounds, the broader trend held.

The next rising phase lasted about 13 months. XRP recovered from the 2022 low area and traded around $0.713 on July 15, 2023. The following downturn lasted about 12 months, but the decline was limited compared with the 2021 to 2022 correction. During that period, XRP moved within a broad range rather than plunging, and was around $0.5965 on Aug. 1, 2024.

From the second half of 2024, a stronger rise unfolded. XRP was still around $0.60 in early August 2024, but climbed to about $1.94 on Nov. 30 and to about $3.50 on July 17, 2025. Another roughly 12-month falling phase followed, giving back a large portion of the prior gains, and it slid to about $1.09 on July 18, 2026.

The current phase is interpreted as a new upswing that began around August 2026. On that basis, October is when the third monthly candle of the new cycle forms. Even in an up cycle, not every monthly candle has to close higher, and in the past there have been repeated down monthly candles within a major upward move.

The key is whether the structure of higher highs and higher lows is maintained. July 2027 is also closer to a potential cycle transition window than a confirmed reversal point.

If the upward structure holds, the first resistance zone is $1.70 to $2.00. If it breaks through and settles above that range on a monthly closing basis, the possibility opens of retesting the prior cycle highs of $2.50 to $3.50. A more gradual scenario cited was moving sideways for several months between $1.20 and $1.70, then expanding gains in the latter part of the cycle.

On the downside, $1 was cited as a key pivot point. If moves below that level persist on a monthly closing basis, it would damage the structure that has lifted highs and lows and could increase the risk that the expected 12-month rising cycle ends early, the analysis said.

XRP's 24-hour trading range is about $1.29 to $1.35. The analysis presented the 12 to 14-month cycle not as a definitive forecast but as a benchmark for checking trends. As interpretation may change with each additional monthly candle, it said the coming months should track changes in highs and lows, along with whether $1 support holds.