[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] A forecast has emerged that Cardano (ADA) could surge to $4 by the end of the year, but market views are sharply divided because the gap with the current price is large.

On Oct. 24 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Crypto Captain argued that despite a recent correction, ADA could show a parabolic surge before the end of 2026.

Crypto Captain presented a weekly ADA chart and pointed to price moves from 2023 to 2026 and a long-term recovery path extending to 2027. The chart included an upward trend line linking past moves and a path suggesting Cardano could climb to $4 after surpassing its previous all-time high (ATH) of $3.10.

But the market has raised doubts about whether the token can reverse direction in a short period with a little more than 2 months left until year-end. ADA slipped below $0.21 last week, a level seen as psychological support, and then rebounded. As of that day, it was trading at $0.2107, down 2.47 percent from 24 hours earlier. At $0.2107, it would need to rise 1,799 percent to reach $4.

$4 would be a new peak above the previous high of about $3.10. Based on the current circulating supply, the market capitalisation would reach about $147.22 billion. That means the size of the rise implied by the target is very large.

Other outlooks are far more conservative. On-chain forecasting platform Changelly set an ADA price range of $0.20 to $0.24 for December 2026. Even if it reaches the upper end of $0.24, that would be about a 13.9 percent rise from the current price. Telegaon also set $1.43 as its maximum year-end target. Even in that case, it would need to rise about 579 percent from the current price.

The wide gap in forecasts is because Cardano's recent performance has been weak. ADA has remained in a long decline since a peak above $1 in January 2025, and Crypto Captain saw a long-term recovery pattern as still intact. He judged ADA could reach $4 before year-end despite recent weakness, but other forecasting platforms are placing more weight on a limited rebound or a mid-level recovery by year-end.

Crypto Captain's scenario assumes a sharp trend reversal in which Cardano breaks above its previous high. With limited time left until year-end, the gap between forecasts could widen further depending on how fast ADA actually recovers.

Ultimately, the forecast again shows the gap between expectations and reality surrounding Cardano. The $4 call is close to the most aggressive scenario, while conservative forecasts point to levels near the current price or the low $1 range. When assessing ADA's year-end path, there is a need to check the current price, the size of the rise required and changes in market capitalisation, not just high targets.

CARDANO #ADA is about to go parabolic next price target somewhere between 4$ before end of this year. #ADAHolders #CardanoCommunity https://t.co/0J5iZ15lWF