Bitwise has forecast that Bitcoin will rise over the long term regardless of how artificial intelligence trends or the direction of U.S. interest rates changes.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 15 that Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (매트 호건) said in a weekly memo that the biggest questions recently are the possibility of a recession and where Bitcoin heads if an AI bubble bursts.

Hougan said the range of scenarios markets are contemplating is the widest in his career. He said the conclusion is similar even if AI’s trajectory is divided into three paths. In an environment where AI boosts productivity and gross domestic product, costs in knowledge-intensive industries such as software, law and pharmaceuticals could fall, he said. That could shift value toward assets whose value is hard to replicate, he added. In that case, Bitcoin could benefit along with waterfront land, famous paintings and gold, he said.

Hougan said the long-term direction would be the same even if an AI bubble collapses. He acknowledged that in the early stage Bitcoin could fall along with risk assets. But he argued that AI investment is the biggest infrastructure investment in U.S. history and is geopolitically important, making the possibility of a public bailout close to 100%. He said that if the money supply expands rapidly after rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, Bitcoin could eventually rise sharply.

Hougan made a similar argument about the interest-rate path. He said Bitcoin could rise even in an environment where 3% growth and about 4% rates persist, and maintained his long-term bullish outlook regardless of whether rates rise further. He did not see the rise as smooth. He cited Bitcoin’s 50% plunge in just a few days in the early phase of the 2020 COVID-19 period before it rose about 20-fold, warning that sharp corrections could occur along the way.

In contrast to the long-term optimism, the short-term market is reacting sensitively to macro indicators. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Oct. 14 that the September consumer price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above the market estimate of 3.6%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 2.6%, above the estimate of 2.5%. Bitcoin fell about 2% to below $82,000.

Interest-rate expectations also shifted immediately. Based on CME Group’s FedWatch, the probability of a rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 27 to 28 rose to about 54%. In the short term, tightening concerns have pressured Bitcoin prices.

Market participants’ views are mixed. Paul Howard (폴 하워드), senior director at liquidity provider Wincent, gave a short-term price range of $80,000 to $88,000 and said $75,000 could come into view if $80,000 breaks. Matt Mena (매트 메나), chief crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said much of the downside had already been priced in as the market re-tests a $81,000 to $82,000 support zone after last week’s drop below $85,000. Mena said Bitcoin could move back above $85,000 and head toward $90,000 if macro uncertainty eases.

Ultimately, the key to this outlook lies in long-term liquidity and shifts in asset preferences rather than short-term price swings. Whether AI lifts the economy or triggers policy responses after a bubble bursts, Bitwise sees conditions that could be favorable to Bitcoin in both cases. As a result, the market is likely to watch inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s rate path for now, while also tracking how expanded AI investment and liquidity policy affect Bitcoin supply and demand.