Bitcoin fell below $82,000 after the release of the U.S. September consumer price index (CPI). As inflation beat market expectations and renewed the possibility of additional rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, crypto assets, stocks and gold prices weakened and Treasury yields rose.
On Oct. 14, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and multiple foreign media outlets, consumer prices in September rose 3.7 percent year on year. That exceeded both August’s 3.4 percent rise and the market forecast of 3.6 percent. The monthly increase was 0.6 percent, in line with expectations, but core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent month on month and 2.6 percent year on year, topping forecasts of 0.2 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The rise in core prices showed inflation pressure was not confined to energy.
Gasoline prices rose 9.1 percent, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in overall prices. The energy index rose 5.2 percent, shelter costs increased 0.4 percent and food prices were unchanged. Price increases were also seen in used cars, airfares, leisure, education and medical services.
After the inflation report, bitcoin gave back earlier gains that had briefly lifted it to $84,000 and slipped below $82,000. Coin360 showed bitcoin trading at about $81,558. Ethereum also weakened immediately after the inflation data.
In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.329 percent intraday, approaching a 24-year high. Gold fell to $4,079 per ounce after the inflation report. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could weigh on risky assets such as bitcoin that do not pay interest.
Rate expectations also shifted. CME Group’s FedWatch showed the market-implied probability of a 0.25 percentage-point rate hike at the October Fed meeting rose to 53.7 percent from 22.1 percent the day before the inflation report. Some Fed officials, however, signaled a cautious approach, suggesting they would keep the possibility of a December hike open rather than rush at the October meeting.
Separate from macroeconomic factors, spot demand for bitcoin showed signs of recovery. CryptoQuant assessed that spot demand, which had been sluggish for two months, rose by about 69,000 BTC. However, concerns about further liquidations remain after more than $800 million in forced liquidations hit the crypto market earlier.
Bitget analyst Lewis Huang (루이스 황) pointed to $81,300 as bitcoin’s short-term support level. If the decline extends below that price, the risk of further losses could increase, the analysis said. The next key variables for markets are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Oct. 27 to 28 and the September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on Oct. 29.