Bitcoin is extending weakness in October, down 4.1 percent over the past week.

DeCrypt, a blockchain outlet, reported on Oct. 9 (local time) that $484.9 million left spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Oct. 8, increasing downward pressure on the market.

Bitcoin has typically benefited from expectations for an "Uptober" rally, a term for October strength, but the tone is different this year from the start. Bitcoin slipped as low as $80,427 over the past week and is now trading around $83,000. Early last week it tried to break above $87,000 but failed to hold the level.

Markets are treating the area around $83,000 as a short-term pivot. Luke Dins, senior research associate at Bitwise Europe, pointed to $83,000 as an important zone because it overlaps with the average ETF purchase price and a past technical peak. He said that if a recovery at this level is delayed, investors should leave room for lower structural support levels.

As downside supports, $77,000 and $72,000 are being mentioned together. Ananda Banerjee, founder and chief quantitative researcher at Charlie Quant Lab, said on-chain indicators show notable bitcoin accumulation around $77,000. Dins also said the "true market mean," the average acquisition price of active investors, is close to that range.

Further down, $74,000 and $72,000 were also presented as potential supports. Dins said the short-term holder cost basis, which shows the average purchase price of new market participants, is around $74,000, and the 200-day moving average is near $72,000. "Even if meaningful slippage from current prices is observed, it is not the stage to view the risk-asset preference structure as completely damaged," he said. "The $72,000 to $77,000 range could become a zone for retesting a broader pivot."

Muted spot demand and ETF outflows are cited as the direct drivers of the short-term weakness. Analysts at Bitfinex said the failure early in the week to break above $87,000 was largely driven by futures positioning and that spot demand is lacking. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of just $241.1 million in the week from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. That was a sharp slowdown from $2.39 billion the prior week.

ETF flows worsened further. The $484.9 million outflow on Oct. 8 was the largest single-day outflow since June 25. BlackRock's IBIT saw $207.7 million leave, while Fidelity's FBTC had $105.1 million in outflows. Another $244.0 million flowed out on Oct. 9, and the fund flow has yet to show signs of reversal.

Markets are watching inflation data alongside ETF fund flow direction. Bitfinex said bitcoin is forming a range between $84,000 and its opening price for the year of $87,722. It said the September consumer price index, due on Oct. 14, and a recovery in ETF inflows are factors that could end the current trend. Kaneluka Koyman, an investment strategist at Sygnumbank, also said low spot trading volume is limiting bitcoin's rise.

Some also say it is too early to conclude that expectations of October strength have disappeared completely. Jake Kennis, chief research analyst at Nansen, said bitcoin's median October return has been about 14 percent since 2013, and 10 of the past 13 Octobers ended higher. He stressed, however, that liquidity, positioning, the macro environment and underlying demand matter more for investment decisions than seasonality in a particular month.

This correction again showed that spot demand and ETF fund flows have a more direct impact on bitcoin prices than October seasonality. Markets are focusing more on whether bitcoin can reclaim $83,000 and on support strength in the $72,000 to $77,000 range than on expectations of a short-term rebound.