Bitcoin has entered an early phase of gains, but further upside is limited as a sell wall on Binance’s spot market caps prices, an analysis showed.

CoinPost, a blockchain outlet, reported on Thursday that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said Bitcoin has yet to develop into an uptrend accompanied by broad market participation, and that absorption of sell supply will be a variable for the time being.

Glassnode pointed to signs of cooling demand in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. Net inflows were about $1 billion each on Sept. 21 and 22, with Sept. 21 the biggest in about a year. Inflows then shrank on each subsequent trading day, falling to $24 million on Sept. 28.

Bitcoin’s price also failed to establish a clear direction over the same period. Glassnode said another $1 billion inflow could be the clearest signal of a rebound in demand.

Bitcoin’s weekly net realized profit in dollar terms was well below the average seen at the peaks in 2024 and 2025. Realized profits by long-term holders who held coins for at least 155 days, however, almost doubled compared with the weeks when prices surged. Glassnode explained that if weekly profit-taking approaches past peak levels, it could be read as a signal that holders are stepping up selling to take advantage of rising prices.

In the short term, the Binance spot order book was cited as a key variable. Glassnode said a sell wall formed in the $85,000 to $85,500 range on Sept. 24 is restraining the upside in the current price. It said that range is likely to act as the most important resistance level while the sell orders remain, and that a clear move above $85,500 could be seen as breaking through the biggest resistance zone in the order book.

On the downside, $77,200 was presented as an important defense line. Since Sept. 18, Bitcoin has traded above $77,200, described as the estimated average cost basis of active investors, known as the "true market mean". The average cost basis of short-term holders was put at $73,300. Glassnode said the current upswing could weaken if Bitcoin falls below $77,200.

Trading volume is also failing to support the strength of the trend. Total Bitcoin trading volume across spot exchanges and ETFs averaged about $6.4 billion a day, staying near the lower end since ETFs were listed. Glassnode said volume is not keeping up with price gains and that broad-based demand across the market has not yet arrived. It added that Bitcoin volume needs to rise consistently to be seen as a signal of wider diffusion.

The market’s next watch points are narrowing to three. They are whether ETF inflows expand again, whether Bitcoin breaks through resistance at $85,500, and whether volume revives while it holds support at $77,200. Glassnode diagnosed the current move as an early uptrend that still retains speculative characteristics.