Bitcoin short-term holders’ average unrealised return fell to 13.7 percent from 15.4 percent over the past week.

CoinPost, a blockchain outlet, reported on Oct. 1 that the average entry price for short-term holders rose while bitcoin remained range-bound, narrowing their profit.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr (액셀 아들러 주니어) cited a rise in average entry prices, not a price drop, as the reason returns for short-term holders (STH) fell. Short-term holders’ realised price rose 1.2 percent to $73,700 from $72,800 in the week from Sept. 24. Bitcoin’s price was nearly flat over the same period. Bitcoin, currently in the $84,000 range, is about 14 percent above short-term holders’ realised price.

Realised price is an estimated average entry price based on the price when each bitcoin last moved on-chain. Investors with a holding period of less than 155 days are typically classified as short-term holders, and their realised price is interpreted as the group’s average break-even level. When the market price is above the realised price, it means short-term holders, on average, are sitting on unrealised gains.

Short-term holders’ average entry price has been rising steadily since Aug. 20. The weekly pace of increase, however, slowed to 1.2 percent recently from 2.2 percent as of Sept. 23. As bitcoin’s price stayed in place, their average entry price rose and the gap with the market price narrowed, lowering unrealised returns.

Long-term holders (LTH) moved in the opposite direction. Long-term holders’ realised price fell 0.3 percent to $48,800 from $48,900 over the same week. Adler suggested as a possible backdrop that some coins bought at above-average prices may have shifted from the long-term holder bracket to the short-term holder bracket.

Bitcoin is currently 72 percent above long-term holders’ realised price. That means long-term holders remain in unrealised profit territory, while also confirming that neither short-term nor long-term holders have been pushed below their break-even levels.

The indicator shows how changes in average entry prices by investor group affect the return structure more than bitcoin’s price itself. If short-term holders’ break-even level keeps rising, perceived returns could shrink further even if prices move sideways. If bitcoin resumes an uptrend, short-term holders’ unrealised gains could expand quickly. The market is likely to watch whether short-term holders’ realised price continues to rise in the near term along with bitcoin’s price moves.