[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin traded around $83,823 on Oct. 1 (local time), extending its upward move. It failed to break the $84,433 resistance level, keeping attention on whether it can make a further breakout.

According to blockchain outlet DeCrypt, expectations are forming around “Up-tober,” a term for an October rally. But U.S. benchmark rate hikes, rising Treasury yields and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are combining to limit bitcoin’s gains.

Bitcoin rose 6.33 percent in September. Its gain at one point reached 7.33 percent, above the 7.29 percent recorded in September 2024, but it gave back part of the advance in a month-end pullback. It posted a positive return despite a typically weak “Red September” and entered October with gains intact.

Market attention is on whether this upward trend will continue in October. According to CoinGlass, since 2013 bitcoin’s October returns averaged 19.92 percent and the median was 14.71 percent. Past performance supports bullish expectations, but it has not risen every year. It fell 3.69 percent last October, marking the third negative October return since 2013.

This year’s monetary policy is also a variable. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points on Sept. 16 to 3.75 to 4 percent. It was the first increase since July 2023, and the decision was unanimous. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained high, and the median of the Fed’s rate projections pointed to one additional 25-basis-point increase later this year. The next rate decision is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Rising Treasury yields have also added pressure on bitcoin. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.289 percent in late September and the 30-year yield climbed to 5.632 percent, with both hitting 52-week highs. If interest income from Treasuries increases, bitcoin, which does not pay interest, could look less attractive. Over the same period, the S&P 500 and the Dow also fell on a monthly basis, pressuring risk assets broadly.

In August, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier, below the 3.7 percent estimate. Core PCE inflation also came in at 3.0 percent, below the 3.3 percent estimate. Still, the results alone did not spread expectations that the Fed’s tightening stance would change.

ETF flows have also shifted direction. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows totaling $3.08 billion for nine consecutive trading sessions through Sept. 29. But net outflows of $148.69 million on Sept. 30 snapped the streak.

The change is more pronounced compared with recent inflows. About $2.4 billion flowed in during the week that included Sept. 21, and daily inflows reached $999 million on one day. By contrast, cumulative flows this week showed net outflows of $51.42 million. The key question is whether the month-end outflow was temporary or a signal that buying is easing.

Prediction markets showed both expectations for modest gains and caution about higher price levels. On prediction market Myriad, the implied probability of bitcoin reaching $85,000 in October was 90 percent, and the chance of reaching $87,500 was 70 percent. The probability of reaching $90,000 stood at 48 percent. Elsewhere, the probability of setting a new all-time high before 2027 was just 7 percent.

Technical indicators showed a buyer-led trend continuing. The average directional index (ADX), which measures trend strength, stood at 41.5, well above 25, a level often used to judge a clear trend. The upward directional indicator was higher than the downward one, suggesting the current move is driven by buying. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) also remained above the 200-day average, supporting the uptrend.

The relative strength index (RSI) was 61.8, keeping to a level where buying pressure is dominant. It remained below 70, which is commonly seen as an overbought threshold. The squeeze momentum indicator showed volatility compression had already been resolved, and Bollinger Bands were also widening. The price remained in a zone after pulling back from a short-term peak of $87,354 formed after rebounding from around $74,977.

Major economic events that could shape market direction are also lined up this month. The September jobs report is due on Oct. 2, and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Oct. 7. The consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for Oct. 14, followed by the Fed’s rate decision on Oct. 28. For bitcoin to turn “Up-tober” expectations into a sustained rise, it will likely need to confirm shifts in rate outlook based on key indicators along with ETF fund flows.