NCsoft will launch 'Lineage Classic' simultaneously in the South Korean and Taiwan markets on Feb. 7, placing a bet on a rebound in its 2026 performance. The project restores an early-2000s version of the original game that marked the dawn of South Korea's online gaming scene in 1998. It is seen as an important test of NCsoft's corporate value and future business direction, beyond a simple reuse of intellectual property.

With 'Aion2', released in November last year, surpassing 100 billion won in payments within 6 weeks, the industry is watching whether Lineage Classic can sustain the momentum and establish itself as a solid cash cow.

Return to monthly subscriptions, 'select and focus'... "Found a realistic compromise"

The core strategy for Lineage Classic is a return to the basics of its business model. NCsoft is putting the 29,700 won monthly flat-fee plan, once a symbol of Lineage, at the forefront and sharply lowering barriers to entry. This is seen as creating an environment anyone can enjoy without 부담 while seeking a realistic compromise to ensure the IP's sustainability.

Brokerage firms expect the monthly subscription model to serve as the basic framework, with mechanisms to supplement profitability. Changyoung Lee, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, raised the possibility that some probability-based items could be added on top of the subscription to increase the game's fun. The analysis is that this could stimulate players' competitive instincts and bolster ARPU, or average revenue per user.

Even while leaving room to secure profitability, it drew a firm line on operations that had sparked controversy over reverse discrimination against users.

NCsoft released a service-direction FAQ on the official Lineage Classic website on Jan. 12 and said it does not plan to operate promotion broadcasters during the service period. It set out a clear position on an issue that had drawn strong backlash on online communities over fairness with ordinary users.

Weak fourth quarter is an 'optical illusion'... first half is the 'real thing' as deferred revenue is added

From a financial perspective, the launch is the final piece for normalising results. NCsoft's fourth-quarter results last year are expected to miss consensus as a significant portion, about 20 percent or more, of Aion2's hit-driven performance is deferred in accounting terms and recognised in the first quarter of 2026.

FnGuide estimates fourth-quarter revenue and operating profit at 412.6 billion won and 3.1 billion won, respectively. But the forecast for the first quarter this year was tallied at 490.7 billion won in revenue and 85.5 billion won in operating profit, surging 36.2 percent and 1,537.2 percent from a year earlier, respectively.

That means the fourth-quarter weakness is only an accounting optical illusion. The first quarter this year, combining deferred Aion2 revenue and performance from the newly launched Lineage Classic, is expected to be a clear watershed for a turnaround.

On the possibility of cannibalisation with existing Lineage series titles, which some in the market worry about, brokerage firms are also offering analyses that the gains will outweigh the losses. Hoyoon Jung, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "There are concerns about cannibalisation with the existing Lineage series, but if it settles into the market it could make a significant contribution to NCsoft's results from the second quarter."

Joonho Lee, an analyst at Hana Securities, estimated that Lineage Classic would likely see a strong regrouping effect among past users, and that its full-year 2026 revenue would be about 89.5 billion won. NCsoft also acquired a 150 billion won stake in casual game company Indigo Group in December to diversify its portfolio. The aim is to tighten its grip on existing fans through 'classic' heavy MMORPGs while expanding its reach in casual genres through mergers and acquisitions.

'100 percent manual' confirmed draws cheers... but the test of 'authenticity' starts now

The key to success is how accurately it reproduces the era users remember. Online communities and YouTube have cited key conditions for success, including opposition to auto-hunting, keeping the 'direct-trade feel' instead of an exchange, and maintaining penalties for item disappearance. The concern is that introducing modern systems for convenience could undermine the identity of a classic title.

NCsoft appeared to accept many user demands through the FAQ released on Jan. 12. The development team said, "Lineage Classic will be provided as a 100 percent manual play environment just like back then," and "We consider the play experience of hunting directly, moving directly, and building it yourself the most important." It added that it could respond flexibly after launch depending on user inconvenience, and that even if auto play is introduced it would be provided in a limited environment such as applying only to specific dungeons.

It also decided not to introduce the 'Einhasad's Blessing' system, or similar systems, that supported rapid growth. It will provide a character restoration system, but not in a 100 percent restoration form, and it plans to maintain the tension of experience-point penalties. The initial target level is 52, and it plans to expand through episodes to Aden and ultimately operate with a final target of level 70.

It also prepared measures to revive past PC cafe culture. An AC -3 effect will be provided at all times, and the 'Pixie's Feather' system will offer benefits for consumable production and dungeon use. Key class skills such as Shock Stun and elemental magic are designed to be obtained as rewards through bosses, boosting tension in hunting and combat. A 'Slime Arena' that excludes gambling elements will also be introduced.

NCsoft is also focusing on stimulating nostalgia among users in their 30s and 40s, including providing the 'Bone Set' (Skull Helmet and Bone Shield), once a nationally popular item, as a pre-registration reward and announcing a 'Level 52 Death Knight' achievement event. In South Korea and Taiwan, 10 servers each will open, with 9 PVP and 1 non-PVP. It will use past server names such as Deporoju and Kenrauhel as they were.

But concerns remain. If it adds excessive paid products for profitability or fails to capture the art of operations, users who returned expecting a 'good game' could leave again, making it a double-edged sword. Attention is also on remarks in the FAQ that auto play could later be introduced in a limited way and that it plans to provide a skin system by season, which suggest the possibility of future business-model expansion.

Ultimately, whether Lineage Classic can run long will depend on whether NCsoft can show 'authentic' operations that keep promises to users over immediate profit.

An industry official said, "Lineage Classic is NCsoft's last chance to wash away the stigma that 'Lineage equals excessive monetisation'," adding, "What matters more than short-term sales performance is restoring the trust of the 'Lineage uncles' who left, and if that succeeds it will also lay the groundwork for the success of next titles to be released after 2026."