[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Market analyst Lark Davis forecast that ADA could regain $1 and, over the longer term, rise to $1.50 to $2, citing the Cardano community’s cohesion and social influence.

On Sept. 29, local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Davis said ADA’s price could move sharply depending on the community’s cohesion and sustained interest, separate from current network usability metrics.

ADA is currently priced at about $0.242. From this level, it would need to rise about 313 percent to reach $1, about 520 percent to reach $1.50, and about 726 percent to reach $2. Based on circulating supply of about 36,780,000,000 tokens, market capitalisation would be about $36.8 billion at $1, about $55.2 billion at $1.50 and about $73.6 billion at $2.

Davis did not present a specific timeline for reaching the target prices. His logic puts more weight on the Cardano community’s cohesion and sustained interest than on specific chart signals or technical indicators. He sees no need to view network utilisation and token price as necessarily moving in the same direction.

The forecast contrasts somewhat with his recent critical assessments of Cardano. Davis has repeatedly pointed this year to issues including trading volume, fees, DeFi adoption, governance and a lack of activity compared with competing networks. In June, he argued Cardano’s fair value by usage was in the $50 million to $100 million range, and in July he highlighted gaps in transaction counts and app fees versus Solana.

He said at the time that while other major chains process about 10,000,000 transactions a day, Cardano is at about 30,000. He said Cardano-based applications pay only thousands of dollars a day in fees, while Solana posts millions of dollars. In September he called the Cardano ecosystem a "ghost town" and questioned why eight years of development had not translated into stronger on-chain activity.

Even so, Davis has consistently acknowledged that market sentiment and community strength can move ADA’s price sharply. In August he also cited an instance when Cardano once reached a market capitalisation of about $100 billion before smart contracts went live, saying it is difficult to explain price solely by network utilisation.

Davis in 2021 cited the Cardano community as one of the project’s biggest strengths, and in January 2022 he said inflows were lacking but retail investor support was unusually strong. He said at the time he sold ADA he held in 2021 for high returns, and also mentioned the possibility of buying again.

His assessments later diverged by period. In March 2024 he questioned whether Cardano was undervalued in that market cycle, but in 2026 he stepped up criticism over a lack of on-chain activity and competitiveness.

Ultimately, the $1 to $2 scenario is closer to an argument that a large community that maintains interest even after a price drop could lift ADA’s market performance again, rather than an analysis premised on improved Cardano network metrics. ADA remains more than 92 percent below its all-time high of $3.10 set in September 2021. The price range Davis presented is also better seen as a scenario assuming long-term recovery potential than as a short-term target.

UPDATE: Lark Davis on $ADA's social dominance, says "#Cardano's got enough of a cult following, it probably gets back to $1.00, maybe even $1.50, $2.00." pic.twitter.com/OV9C3uM4IW