XRP is set to end higher for a third straight month, shaking up a bearish market trend.

On Sept. 29, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that after a 22.1 percent drop in June, XRP has kept rising from July through September, creating a historically rare bullish signal.

So far, the recovery looks clear. XRP rose 2.11 percent in July and climbed 30 percent in August. It is up about 8.6 percent in September and was trading around $1.49. Such a run has not been common during periods of high market uncertainty, and there have been cases where it later led to a strong uptrend.

A regulatory development also helped lift expectations. On Sept. 28, a revised 424B3 prospectus related to a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The document said Coinbase Custody was designated as the fund's custodian and investor fees were set at 0.34 percent. The filing does not mean a final approval decision, but it showed infrastructure is in place to issue fund shares, boosting expectations of institutional inflows.

Chart signals are also leaning toward a rebound. XRP confirmed support around $1.2646 this summer. The area overlapped with key moving averages, and the relative strength index (RSI) showed a bullish divergence buy signal. This supports the possibility of a long-term trend shift.

In the short term, the key is whether it breaks above resistance at $1.5411. If XRP settles above that level, $2.3 is discussed as the next target zone. That level corresponds to a 2025 high.

A factor limiting the upside scenario also remains. By seasonality, October is seen as XRP's weakest month. A near-term focus is whether the bearish pattern repeats or whether expectations for institutional demand around the ETF can outweigh seasonal weakness.

Ultimately, XRP's next direction depends on two things. Technically, it needs a break above resistance at $1.5411. On flows, progress in preparations for a spot ETF needs to translate into expectations of actual inflows. If XRP confirms a third straight monthly gain in coming days, the market could see it as one of the signals that the bear market is ending.

This move is drawing attention because a price rebound coincides with progress in spot ETF preparations. With technical signals and institutional investment infrastructure coming into focus at the same time, the yardstick for judging whether XRP can sustain gains has become clearer.