Ethereum kept a double-digit rise in September, but an analysis said whether it can break $3,000 depends on clearing the $2,700 to $2,800 range.

On Sept. 29, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that Ethereum was trading around $2,690, about 11 percent higher than in early September.

Ethereum rose 32.6 percent in August and extended gains into September. It started the month near $2,419 and briefly slipped to $2,358 on Sept. 3, but its rebound strengthened after mid-month. It rose 6.7 percent on Sept. 18 to around $2,612. It then jumped 4.9 percent on Sept. 21 to above $2,775, hitting a September high of $2,805 earlier that day.

Recent trading looks closer to range consolidation after a sharp rebound than a one-way climb. Ethereum has moved between $2,650 and $2,750 over the past week, and the market sees $2,700 to $2,800 as a key resistance zone that will determine the next direction. Technically, the trend has improved since the June low, and it has also broken above the previous $2,400 to $2,550 range. Short-term support was presented at $2,350 to $2,400, and the area where long-term moving averages cluster was given as $2,180 to $2,250.

On the supply-and-demand side, institutional buying is cited as a supporting factor. Arkham Intelligence data showed BlackRock's spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund products bought more than $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum over 20 days. Of that, ETHA accounted for about $1.27 billion, while about $296.5 million flowed into the more recently launched ETHB over the same period. BlackRock's holdings were tallied at about 3.56 million ETH worth about $8.69 billion as of Sept. 17.

Profit-taking by long-term holders was also seen during the rise. A wallet belonging to an early investor that had been dormant for about 9 years has recently started moving again. The address bought 3,000 ETH in 2017 at an average of $18.80 and later sold 2,000 ETH at an average of about $3,096, securing about $6.19 million. The remaining 1,000 ETH was worth about $2.67 million at the time.

Large moves also continued. An investor who has held Ethereum since 2023 moved 112,000 ETH worth about $300 million to Bitfinex in the last week of September. Separately, about 42,005 ETH worth about $111.9 million was reported to have been sold over-the-counter. That means large selling has emerged at the same time as institutional buying flows in.

Quarterly performance was strong. CryptoRank quarterly data put Ethereum's return in the third quarter of 2026 at about 72.7 percent, the strongest third-quarter performance in the dataset. It fell 29.1 percent in the first quarter and 25.3 percent in the second, making the third-quarter rebound large.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (알리 마르티네즈) cited a past case in which Ethereum rose 31 percent over three days after a similar pattern breakout, and said a breakout above $2,474 could open the way to $3,000. He added this was not a confirmed price target but a technical scenario. On-chain, the fact that whale investors moved more than $300 million worth of Ethereum from exchange addresses to cold wallets is interpreted as a signal that near-term circulating supply is shrinking.

Ultimately, the key point to watch in October is whether September's rebound can extend into an uptrend through the start of the fourth quarter. The market still has expectations for "Uptober," but Ethereum's past October returns have not been consistent. As a result, a push toward $3,000 is expected to depend more on whether it breaks above $2,700 to $2,800, the durability of institutional demand and the pace of profit-taking by large holders than on seasonality.

ETHEREUM TARGETS $3,000 The last triangle breakout sent Ethereum surging 31% in just three days. Now, another triangle is forming. If $ETH breaks out again, a similar move could send it to $3,000. https://t.co/BXa3sGjPMf pic.twitter.com/E4zlJHNFNc