[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP posted its strongest third-quarter finish in 4 years, but a rally from early October is seen as difficult.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 27 that XRP returned 48.1 percent in the third quarter, marking its strongest third-quarter performance since 2022. It said technical overheating combined with seasonal weakness could make it hard for the advance to continue immediately.

XRP traded at $1.54 as large funds flowed in through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It recouped all first-half losses, and bullish signals also appeared on the weekly chart.

Much of the September surge was driven by a short squeeze. Leverage in the futures market built up excessively in the process, and a short-term overbought zone formed. Analysts said a technical pullback to the $1.30 to $1.40 range and a renewed test of support would be needed for the uptrend to continue.

Past returns also dampen expectations for strength in October. Cryptorank said October has historically been XRP's weakest month, with an average return of minus 5.14 percent and a median of minus 2.97 percent. XRP also ended October lower in 2024 and 2025.

By contrast, the average fourth-quarter return was 133.3 percent. The median, however, was minus 8.00 percent, making it difficult to infer strength from the average alone. Median returns for November and December were 80.2 percent and 63.1 percent, respectively, shifting expectations toward year-end rather than October. It said even if fourth-quarter strength appears, a rally does not necessarily start immediately from early October.

Attention is therefore focused on the process of easing overheating rather than whether the rise will persist in the near term. October could see range-bound trading or a mild correction, with support at $1.30 to $1.40 and subsequent fund inflows cited as key variables.

The main phase of fund inflows has in fact tended to be concentrated in late autumn. The median return in November was the highest at 80.2 percent, and December remained strong at 63.1 percent. That means even if expectations for fourth-quarter strength remain, it does not have to start in early October.

In this environment, what the market is watching is the overheating unwind rather than the continuation of the short-term rise. Analysts said XRP is on the threshold of a strong up cycle, but conditions are not in place to accelerate from the start of the quarter. They see a greater chance of prolonged range-bound trading or a mild correction in October. As a result, market participants need to watch support at $1.30 to $1.40 and when inflows resume after November, rather than focusing on the third-quarter result itself.