Shiba Inu is boosting expectations for an October rally on the back of an unusual third-quarter rise.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 25 that Shiba Inu ended the third quarter up 39.3 percent, breaking with past trends for a period that typically shows weakness.

Shiba Inu is statistically considered a strong cryptocurrency in October, but caution is needed when expectations run ahead. SHIB’s average October return was tallied at 167.5 percent, but that figure largely reflects the impact of an 833 percent surge in 2021. The median stands at 6.04 percent.

Even so, October draws attention because of the probability of gains. Shiba Inu ended October lower only once during the period tallied, with an 80 percent probability of finishing the month higher. Three straight months of gains have also provided rare price support since the 2021 surge period.

Technical momentum has also improved. Shiba Inu is trading at $0.0000058569, with a market value of $3.45 billion. It is up 6.73 percent over the past 7 days. On charts, after bottoming around a market value of $2.21 billion, it broke upward out of a falling-wedge pattern that had persisted for two years and also formed a double bottom.

The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is also showing a rebound signal. The RSI stood at 52.28, and two bullish divergences were confirmed. That implies different moves not only in price but also in supply-and-demand indicators.

The short-term pivot is whether it breaks through resistance. Buyers first need to clear local resistance at $0.00000626. If that level breaks, the next target zone is $0.00000950 to $0.00001100. If the upper end of resistance opens up, the path to the target is relatively clear.

Large investor activity is also picking up again. Over the past 7 days, large transactions of $100,000 or more rose 14.8 percent. Whale investors are withdrawing coins from exchanges and moving them to cold wallets, which could work to reduce circulating supply. The market is watching the metric because easing supply pressure could increase short-term price responsiveness.

Still, it is difficult to view the October bullish thesis as leading directly to a sharp surge. Technical reversal and improving supply-demand conditions need to be considered together, and bitcoin’s moves also matter. Bitcoin is lifting the broader market above $86,000, but a sudden turn could also affect Shiba Inu. It was also mentioned that medium-term investors could take profits immediately after the first resistance level is reached.

Ultimately, the key for Shiba Inu in October is whether the current structural changes lead to an actual breakout, rather than past average returns. Expectations have risen as an unusual third-quarter strength, a break from a two-year downtrend line and an increase in large transactions overlap, but the market has entered a phase of first checking whether it clears initial resistance and whether bitcoin’s trend holds.