XRP’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) has re-entered a recovery zone similar to past major bull runs, but the key signal has yet to appear.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Friday that the RSI on the monthly chart is trying to rebound from a low area but remains below the yellow moving-average line.

The focus is whether the monthly RSI breaks back above the moving average. On the chart, before two previous major rallies, the RSI fell to similarly low levels and then rebounded. Momentum strengthened after the green RSI line moved above the yellow moving-average line or recovered above it. This time, while the RSI is again in that past low range, the key crossover signal has not been confirmed.

In one past case, XRP traded around $0.18 and then rose to $2. In another, it climbed from about $0.37 to around $3.30. In both cases, the RSI first entered a decline phase, then turned, and was followed by a recovery above the moving average. With XRP now around $1.54, some in the market see room for a simple comparison with those past cases.

Still, those figures are only calculations that mechanically apply past gains. Previous rallies started from different price levels, and market conditions and timeframes also differed. That is why it cannot be assumed that a move of the same magnitude will be repeated.

In the long-term trend, XRP has been trading within a long-term moving-average band after a recent pullback following a rise in 2025. The chart presents periods around 2017, 2021 and 2025, showing that monthly RSI momentum reset while XRP went through prolonged sideways moves and corrections. The structure is similar this time, but it is too early to view it as a completed signal.

What investors should check next is clear. For the current pattern to carry the same meaning as past cases, the monthly RSI needs to cross back above the moving average. Until then, the chart concludes that this move should be seen not as a completed momentum reversal but as a phase of historical comparison.

As a result, while the short-term point that it has entered a similar area to the past is drawing attention, it is difficult to assume a strong rally scenario without technical confirmation. Whether an upward crossover in the monthly RSI actually appears remains a key variable that will shape XRP’s path.