Bitcoin has entered a key zone that could determine year-end market direction after breaking above its May peak on a weekly basis.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on the 25th that market analyst Benjamin Cowen (벤저민 코웬) revised his strategic model for the fourth quarter of 2026 as bitcoin tested a key technical zone around $83,000.

The key is this week’s weekly candle close. Cowen said the break above the May peak on the weekly chart had undermined the typical four-year cycle pattern. He explained that the close of the current weekly candle is therefore a key signal that could determine bitcoin’s direction through year-end.

Cowen laid out two scenarios. If bitcoin stays above the May peak even after the weekly close, he sees the buy side gaining strength and a foundation for an uptrend through the fourth quarter. If it slips back below the May peak after the close, it could be read as a strong fakeout breakout. In that case, a seasonal correction often seen toward year-end could continue, but he did not expect it to fall to a new low for this cycle.

He stressed that in the current market, trying to pre-judge direction in advance is instead inefficient. Cowen said, "You don't have to predict what happens in advance," adding, "It's better to respond to the actual chart structure." He meant strategies should be adjusted based on what structure the price actually maintains, rather than trying to call short-term tops or bottoms.

Cowen also continued to recommend a recurring, staggered buying strategy as a defensive approach for the second half. He judged that in periods of heightened volatility, building long-term positions by using mid-term seasonality can be effective. He said that even if a short-term shock appears in October or November, he would not see it as undermining the broader trend.

The core of this analysis is that he changed strategy based on the weekly close and whether the key zone holds, rather than on predicting bitcoin’s price. With interpretations of bitcoin’s existing four-year cycle being shaken, a response-focused approach has come to the fore.

I think the weekly Bitcoin close will lay the groundwork for what Q4 will look like. If Bitcoin accepts above the May high, that will improve the bull case substantially. Acceptance back below would just look like a massive fakeout before typical Q4 weakness (but not necessarily to a new low). You don't have to predict what happens, I think reacting is better in this case.