Over the past year, $2.1 trillion in market capitalisation disappeared from the cryptocurrency market, but on-chain economic activity held at about $9.4 trillion, data showed. As stablecoin use expanded, the drop in on-chain activity fell well short of the decline in market value.

On Sept. 24, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that Chainalysis' "2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index" put global on-chain activity at about $9.4 trillion for the 12 months from last July to June 30 this year. That was down 1.6 percent from $9.5 trillion a year earlier.

Over the same period, total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell about 50 percent. Funds flowing into cryptocurrency services such as exchanges and decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols fell 4.3 percent to $8.9 trillion. In contrast, direct transfers between individual wallets within the same country jumped to $228.7 billion from $56.8 billion.

Stablecoins drove the trend. Inflows into cryptocurrency services of dollar-pegged stablecoins rose 5.3 percent even as total receipts by services declined. Stablecoins accounted for about 96 percent of domestic peer-to-peer activity.

Cross-border stablecoin transfers also rose 77.5 percent to $220.3 billion from $124.2 billion. Estimated monthly volume more than doubled to $24.0 billion in June this year from about $11.0 billion in January 2025.

The average size of cross-border transactions was about $3,000, which Chainalysis said corresponded to payments to suppliers, overseas remittances and savings shifts between currencies. Transfers in which countries were difficult to identify reliably were excluded from the tally, so the actual market size could be larger.

Chainalysis said bitcoin fell about $67,000 from its peak to its trough over the period, and the value of the overall cryptocurrency market shrank by about half. In the 2022 to 2023 bear market, on-chain activity fell 23 percent while market capitalisation declined by about $300 billion. This time, market value fell by more, but on-chain activity declined by just 1.6 percent.

Stablecoins keep trading activity despite price falls

In this bear market, the gap between cryptocurrency prices and stablecoin trading activity became clear. While the market declined for 9 months, on-chain stablecoin balances held between $98.0 billion and $109.0 billion, while the value of other on-chain crypto assets fell 55.6 percent. As a result, stablecoins accounted for 22.5 percent of on-chain balances as of June.

Small transactions also rose. Transactions under $100 flowing into cryptocurrency services increased 78.4 percent, while those of $100 or more and under $1,000 rose 58.6 percent. The total value of these transactions was about $273.0 billion. Transactions of $1 million or more fell 7.2 percent from the previous period.

Cross-border stablecoin trading routes also expanded. Chainalysis counted a total of $2.64 billion moving across 4,708 new transaction routes. The volume of transactions on routes outside the top 25 percent by volume rose to $8.66 billion from $260 million, and a large part of that expansion was accounted for by Tether's USDT.

Chainalysis said regulatory frameworks in the United States, the European Union, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Britain were setting out clearer standards for integrating dollar-pegged tokens into payment and settlement products. That is also providing a foundation for stablecoin issuers, exchanges and payment companies to expand into areas beyond cryptocurrency trading.

Still, it is difficult to pin down the actual size of commercial payments from blockchain transfers alone. Wallet-to-wallet transfers can include transactions not directly linked to purchases, such as savings shifts, as well as overseas remittances and payments to suppliers.

It therefore remains to be confirmed whether wider stablecoin use will lead to repeated payments by consumers and businesses. A key issue will be whether issuers and payment providers can turn current fund flows into sustained demand for payments as the market recovers.