A forecast has suggested Bitcoin could reach $457,000 within the next four years if it continues its long-term growth trend.

On Sept. 21 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Bitcoin analyst Mark Harvey projected, based on a power-law model, that Bitcoin's average annual growth rate could reach about 54 percent.

The forecast is based on a Bitcoin price of about $82,830. The $457,000 target is about 5.5 times higher. To reach that level in four years would require compound growth of about 53 percent a year, similar to Harvey's estimate.

A chart released by Harvey analyses the relationship between the days since Bitcoin's launch in January 2009 and its price. The chart put the current price at about $81,209, below the model's midpoint of $147,230. The lower and upper bounds at the same point were presented as $73,615 and $441,687, respectively.

The model focuses on the fact that Bitcoin's price has historically moved around a long-term trend line. It aims to explain long-term price movement rather than predict short-term spikes. The $457,000 estimate was also calculated on the premise that the long-term growth trend continues.

However, such projections vary depending on the model. Another Bitcoin power-law model from the Satoshi Institute presented the current midpoint as about $147,739 and the 2030 midpoint as about $520,085.

Assessments are mixed on the usefulness of these long-term price models. Some studies evaluated them as relatively good at explaining Bitcoin's past price moves, but other researchers questioned whether they can reliably predict future prices.

One study published this year pointed out that the model's results may vary depending on how the starting point of the analysis is set. It said some forecasts over 12 to 24 months showed relatively good performance. That suggests the assumptions and time horizon used in the forecast should be reviewed along with the target price presented by the model.

Accordingly, the forecast shows optimism about Bitcoin's long-term trend, while also highlighting a gap between the current price and the model. With Bitcoin trading below the midpoint, market attention is focused on whether it can return to the long-term growth path and whether the power-law model can maintain its explanatory power going forward.

“The power law (undefeated) predicts $BTC at $457K in just four years at the midpoint. If Bitcoin returns to the midpoint in four years, that implies a 54% CAGR. 54%. pic.twitter.com/Bb4h3eIrlM”