A forecast says prospects have dropped sharply for passage this year of the Clarity Act, a bill that addresses the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 17 local time that JPMorgan analysts assessed the remaining time for legislation as very limited after a Senate procedural vote failed.

The key was a procedural vote held in the U.S. Senate on Sept. 16. The vote to begin consideration of the bill failed 49-50. It did not reach the 60 votes needed to pass.

In the vote, some Democratic lawmakers who participated in drafting the bill also voted against it. Republican Senator Thom Tillis switched to opposing it just before the vote and submitted a motion to reconsider. This was seen as a sign that legislative momentum has weakened.

JPMorgan noted there is a precedent in which the already enacted Genius Act also failed its first procedural vote. With the Senate’s effective operating period before the midterm elections only about 2 and a half weeks, it said investors and the crypto industry are likely to shift their attention to rule overhauls by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The market showed mixed reactions on the reasons for the legislative delay and possible alternatives. Galaxy Digital founder and CEO Mike Novogratz (마이크 노보그라츠) said a standoff over government ethics provisions led to the defeat and criticised both parties. He said the SEC and the CFTC will continue work on crypto rulemaking, and Congress may later turn it into law.

Mizuho Securities also said that if congressional legislation is delayed, regulators may respond through rulemaking and guidance without waiting. It said the decline in Circle and Coinbase share prices was understandable due to uncertainty over stablecoin yields. By contrast, it said Robinhood, Figure and Strategy were being sold off unfairly.

Other Wall Street analysis pointed in a similar direction. TD Cowen analysts said the likelihood of early passage has fallen further, but regulatory changes through SEC rulemaking will continue. They said a legislative solution would be preferable in the long term and the crypto industry’s development will proceed at an uneven pace.

As a result, the market’s near-term focus is increasingly likely to shift from whether Congress will again push for a vote to follow-up steps by regulators. Whether the bill regains momentum in the Senate, or whether the SEC and the CFTC first expand the framework of market discipline, is expected to be the next turning point for U.S. crypto policy.