Crypto markets rose across the board ahead of a vote in the U.S. Senate on a bill to set out market structure for digital assets and the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. With two major events on regulation and monetary policy scheduled in quick succession, the chance of wider market volatility is also increasing.

On Sept. 14 local time, XRP rose 7.7 percent in 24 hours, posting the biggest gain among major tokens, blockchain outlet The Defiant reported. Bitcoin traded at $79,164 and ether at $2,541.82.

Market focus is on the Senate vote scheduled for Sept. 15 and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 16. The Senate is set to hold a cloture vote on the afternoon of Sept. 15 to decide whether to proceed with H.R. 3633. The bill needs 60 votes to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning at least 7 Democratic votes are needed.

Ahead of the vote, Senators Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott released revised text they described as the final version of the bill. They said it reflected 126 substantive changes sought by Democrats.

The revisions include ethics provisions related to politicians' personal investments, the role of state attorneys general and the treasury secretary's authority to respond to bank deposit outflows caused by payment stablecoins. It also includes steps to ease the burden on blockchain developers to register as money transmitters.

Lummis urged passage, saying a year of bipartisan negotiations had left the bill ready for a vote. She argued that voting against it would mean opposing ethics reform on politicians' personal investments and handing U.S. leadership in digital asset markets to overseas competitors.

Markets are watching that two major events on regulation and monetary policy will take place back-to-back within just 48 hours. Maxim Saylor, chief executive of options market-making firm STS Digital, said the Clarity Act vote was scheduled for Tuesday and the Fed decision for Wednesday. He said it would be difficult for the situation to last long when two binary events overlap within 48 hours in a low-volatility environment like the current one.

Prediction markets also showed related expectations. On Polymarket, the chance that the Clarity bill will be signed into law in 2026 was measured at 29.5 percent, up from 18 percent on Sept. 12. In the same market, the likelihood of a 0.25 percentage point Fed rate hike was priced at 85.5 percent, and the chance of no change at 14.5 percent.

The rise in crypto markets contrasted with traditional financial markets. Bitcoin rose 2.3 percent in 24 hours. Ether gained 1.3 percent, Solana 2.4 percent and BNB 0.9 percent. Total crypto market capitalisation rose 2.3 percent to $2.773 trillion. Over the same period, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes fell and gold prices slid 1.3 percent.

No token-specific positive development was confirmed that would directly explain XRP's jump. Ripple's most recent press release concerned corporate treasury products and was released on Sept. 10, and the XRP Ledger blog has had no new posts since Aug. 20. There was also no news of new spot XRP fund trading or approvals, and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings showed no related moves to register listings.

Institutional flows were also mixed by asset. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $13.2 million on Sept. 12, extending to 4 straight trading sessions of withdrawals. Weekly net outflows totalled $462.7 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone saw $19.2 million in outflows. Spot ether ETFs, by contrast, recorded net inflows of $216.4 million on the day. On a weekly basis, they also took in $196.9 million, showing a pattern contrasting with bitcoin ETFs.

On-chain indicators and corporate buying did not fully match the price gains. DeFi total value locked stood at $88.51 billion over 24 hours with little change, according to DefiLlama, while stablecoin supply fell 0.11 percent over the past 7 days.

Strategy, a company that holds bitcoin, did not make additional purchases for a second straight week, keeping its holdings at 845,050 BTC. Strive, however, bought 469 BTC at an average price of $77,954 from Sept. 8 to Sept. 11, raising total holdings to 25,000 BTC.

Buying related to ether also continued. Bitmine Immersion disclosed that it holds about 5.96 million ETH and said 5.07 million ETH of that is staked. The company added 27,180 ETH over the past week and put annualised staking income at $334 million.

Rising oil prices were also cited as a key variable for markets. Saylor said oil above $107 a barrel could weigh on consumer spending, industrial margins and equity valuations. He assessed higher oil prices as closer to a symptom showing already existing problems than the cause of economic problems.

The market is now turning its attention to the U.S. Senate's Clarity Act vote on Sept. 15 and the Fed's rate decision on Sept. 16. Crypto prices currently show risk-on sentiment, but bitcoin ETF flows and on-chain indicators are not improving with the same intensity as the price rise.

With two major events on regulation and monetary policy set to follow one another, market attention is focused on the possibility of a sharp increase in crypto market volatility over the next 48 hours.