[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned retail cryptocurrency traders that they must properly understand the nature of market speculation. He argued they should look at the money and the structure of participants that actually move markets, rather than focus only on short-term price moves or technical indicators.

On Sept. 14 (local time), blockchain outlet U.Today reported that Brandt, in a recent post on X, formerly Twitter, said market speculation cannot be explained only by prices, trading hours, margins, charts and government reports.

Brandt said retail traders, in particular, are clinging too tightly to factors that may not matter in real markets. He described markets as a structure that redistributes money from many to few, and said a small number of participants who move large sums drive market direction.

He said the market's core trading takes place in an "upstairs private poker room". This is interpreted as meaning market participants who manage huge amounts of money, such as institutional investors or large commercial participants.

By contrast, he said retail investors have limited influence. Brandt said participants trading about 5 to 20 futures contracts are effectively not included in the market's calculations, playing down the influence of retail traders. He also described retail investors by saying, "We are peons, and ants when viewed from space."

Brandt's key point was how retail traders view the causes of their losses. Many retail investors blame losses on wrong trading calls, government reports or trading strategies, but do not examine the market structure itself.

Brandt said in crypto markets, too, retail investors can miss the actions of participants who actually move money and the market structure while they focus on short-term price fluctuations, technical signals and the latest market narrative.

He warned that jumping into speculation without understanding this structure leaves a very low chance of success. Brandt said the share of speculators who succeed is less than 3 out of 1,000.

He added that the sooner retail speculators realize trading stocks and commodities is like a huge computer game, the better. He also said these remarks reflect his personal views on the market.

Brandt's remarks came ahead of major macroeconomic events. Markets are watching the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy rate decision this week, Chair Jerome Powell's news conference and the release of the dot plot. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also have rate decisions ahead, and increased volatility in global financial markets is also being discussed.

The regulatory environment is also changing. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in March issued interpretive guidance on crypto assets and classified major cryptocurrencies as "digital commodities". Market participants are adjusting investment positions as monetary policy and regulatory changes unfold at the same time.

Bitcoin showed mixed moves early on Sept. 14, while posting a daily rise. It has not yet recovered the $82,283 high recorded on Sept. 3. Bitcoin has been trading in a corrective range, giving back some gains after a sharp rebound triggered by a short squeeze from the $64,000 range on Aug. 1.

Against that backdrop, Brandt's warning is interpreted as a message that investors should first understand the money and participant structure that moves markets, rather than focus on short-term price outlooks. He said retail investors should not become absorbed only in near-term charts or market narratives and instead need to coolly look at the structure of the speculation they are taking part in.

Market speculation is NOT about markets and prices and trading hours and margins and charts and government reports Have any of you figured this out yet or is the con still sending you down the "road of easy answers"?? Markets are all about redistributing wealth from the many to the few (of course, not in every market every year) The real game is played in the upstairs private poker room (commercials, reportable specs) You and I (5 to 20 or so futures contracts a trade) do not even count. We are peons. Ants viewed from space That the avg spec has not figures this out yet is the reason that fewer than 3 in 1,000 who try make it People whine about their losers. If is always a story of coulda, woulda, shoulda or the latest gimmick in charting or a bad government report. Anyone who believes these fables deserve to lose their money. Seriously, that is my view. Every once in while I see on X a post by someone bragging about the hypothetical profits they made from the "sim trade for a fee" scam. The sooner a retail speculator realizes that trading stocks and commodities is just a huge computer game the better. I view long term holds in quality companies as an investment. Being married to my wife of 58 years is an investment. Not having debt is an investment of sorts. Anyway, this is how I think about it Peter Brandt Founder and CEO, Factor LLC and The Factor Report [As a personal note from me regardless of what you do with your money, surrendering my heart and soul to Christ was the ultimate investment whose dividends will never end.]