AI companies including Anthropic and OpenAI are emerging as major candidates for the next blockbuster global initial public offering after SpaceX.

On Sept. 14, officials in the financial investment industry said Anthropic is preparing to list within the year. The market is looking as early as mid-next month for the start of the listing process, and some forecast its valuation could reach as high as $2 trillion (about 2,691.8 trillion won).

Bloomberg News reported on Sept. 9 that Anthropic is aiming for an IPO that would top SpaceX's $86 billion offering record. KB Securities forecast the market expects Anthropic's offering size at $100 billion (about 134.59 trillion won). Some expect both its overall valuation and the funds it raises in the market could surpass SpaceX.

SpaceX and Anthropic share a common trait in that expectations for future growth are heavily reflected in their valuations, but their profit bases differ. SpaceX has expanded its business based on rocket launches and its Starlink satellite communications service. It also combined that with an AI business through its acquisition of xAI. It is a structure in which space transport and communications infrastructure and an AI business are assessed together.

Anthropic links corporate demand for adopting AI to revenue, centered on its Claude AI model and the Claude Code coding tool. Unlike SpaceX, where results in building and operating rockets and satellite networks are important, model performance, securing corporate clients, service usage and price competitiveness are key. Even if the two companies command similar valuations, the underlying business and cost structures need to be distinguished.

Rapid revenue expansion is cited as a basis for Anthropic's listing value. According to KB Securities, its annualised revenue in July was $65 billion. The figure annualises revenue momentum at a specific point in time and differs from confirmed annual revenue. Applying the expected $2 trillion valuation would amount to about 31 times annualised revenue.

It said it was difficult to conclude that Anthropic's expected valuation is overvalued, given that some listed AI-related companies are also valued at more than 30 times revenue.

As usage fees fall due to rivals' price cuts, and if computing costs needed for AI model development and service operations rise, it becomes harder to explain corporate value through revenue growth alone.

OpenAI is cited as a subsequent super-sized candidate. Foreign media reported OpenAI may also push for a large-scale listing this year or next. The market is discussing a minimum $60 billion fundraising and a maximum $1 trillion valuation in initial talks, while forecasting there is substantial room for changes in timing and scale.

OpenAI operates consumer services through ChatGPT, enterprise AI and a model-provision business targeting developers. Key assessment factors include its ability to convert its user base into paid-service revenue and the burden of investing in large-scale computing infrastructure. As competition with Anthropic intensifies, not only technical performance but also customer retention and cost control could determine post-listing results.

Databricks is also being mentioned as a major listing candidate. Databricks said on Aug. 13 it raised $5 billion in investment and was valued at $190 billion. That is about 42 percent higher than $134 billion in February. It said annualised revenue reached $7 billion and that cash flow over the past year also recorded a positive figure.

Databricks provides a platform that supports companies in storing, managing and analysing data and developing AI services. Its structure is such that client companies' adoption of AI and expanded data use lead to business growth.

If Anthropic and OpenAI are assessed mainly on the competitiveness of their AI models, Databricks is judged mainly on expanded platform use by corporate clients and its ability to generate revenue on a sustained basis.

The IPO candidate pool does not remain limited to AI model companies. Britain's AI cloud company Enscale, power supplier Aggreko and consumer medical technology company Oura Health are also being cited as major candidates. It is a trend in which investment targets are broadening from AI models to computing infrastructure, power and application services.

If large IPOs continue, investment opportunities that had been concentrated in the unlisted market would also expand to retail investors. At the same time, existing listed stocks and new IPO shares would compete for the same investment funds.

In a situation where AI companies are also increasing corporate bond issuance, it is necessary to separately examine whether there is sufficient money to accept high offering prices even if growth prospects are strong.

Choi Bo-young (최보영), a research committee member at Kyobo Securities, analysed: "If super-sized IPOs and AI-related bond issuance increase at the same time, funds that would flow into existing listed stocks could be dispersed." He said offering prices, post-listing returns and corporate bond issuance terms could serve as indicators showing the market's capacity to absorb funds.

Access for South Korean retail investors also changes before and after a listing. Before a listing, investment opportunities are limited depending on whether indirect investment products such as funds holding unlisted stakes are sold and on subscription requirements.

If a company lists on a U.S. exchange, on-exchange trading becomes possible through an overseas stock account at a South Korean securities firm that supports the stock. Taking part in subscription to receive share allocations at the offering price is separate and depends on whether the securities firm secures allocations and provides the service.

In South Korea's stock market, the movement of investment funds is a variable. According to the Korea Securities Depository, about 97 percent of South Korean investors' net purchases of U.S. stocks over the month after SpaceX's listing was concentrated in SpaceX. An analysis said an Anthropic listing could also draw demand to invest directly in AI growth and affect supply and demand for related stocks such as South Korean semiconductors.

Kim Min-kyu (김민규), an analyst at KB Securities, said: "Regardless of whether it is a hit, there is a strong possibility that supply and demand among South Korean investors will be concentrated in Anthropic." He added: "If it fails to take off, concern could spread in the short term to downstream industries such as cloud or memory, which would be negative."