[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] XRP has re-entered a rare technical zone that has repeatedly appeared ahead of major price swings in the past.

On Sept. 9 (local time), blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that analyst Chartnerd assessed XRP as moving in a zone below the lower band of the weekly Gaussian channel, a condition that has appeared only seven times over the past 13 years.

Chartnerd noted that XRP has not often stayed below the weekly Gaussian channel over the past 13 years. He presented 2014, 2017, 2020, 2022, 2024 and the current 2026 period as key cases and said a major repricing in XRP followed each time. "Every price range formed below this indicator ultimately led to major repricing," he said.

XRP has rebounded from about $0.98 to about $1.38 but remains below the lower band of the weekly Gaussian channel. Chartnerd viewed the lower band as having acted as an important buying zone in the past. He drew a line, however, against using the indicator as a tool to predict an exact bottom. Instead, he explained it should be viewed as a reference indicator to check whether XRP is in a price area where it has built a base ahead of a bigger move.

Past moves were similar. XRP often formed a bottom for a period and then moved higher, rather than rebounding sharply immediately after falling below the lower band of the Gaussian channel. Chartnerd assessed such periods as having historically been opportunities in bear markets. In some cases, he noted, gains later reached about 8 to 9 times, while in other cases a 100 percent rebound followed.

Chartnerd also said the current move resembles the 2022 bottom phase. At the time, XRP fell below the Gaussian channel and then recovered to near the channel’s lower band. It then made a higher low and was followed by a strong rebound. He forecast that if XRP fails to break above the lower band of the Gaussian channel in 2026, it could form a higher low or a double-bottom pattern over the coming months. He added that this scenario would require additional confirmation.

It was also noted that a similar signal appeared on the two-week Gaussian channel. Chartnerd said XRP’s break below the lower band of the two-week Gaussian channel appeared near major bottoms and bullish signals such as 2017, 2020 and 2022, and said the same signal is appearing again in 2026.

From a market perspective, more weight is being placed on the possibility of a longer accumulation phase than expectations for a near-term surge. Chartnerd said XRP needs more time to build a strong base, rather than immediately rewriting its all-time high. He recalled that a major rise came after years of range-bound trading from 2013 to 2017, and that move led to the 2018 peak of $3.84.

He also offered a long-term outlook. Chartnerd said the next breakout could be stronger if expanding institutional adoption continues, and suggested the possibility that XRP could reach above $8 in 2028. He maintained, however, that this would also require sufficient base building rather than an immediate surge.

In the end, the current XRP phase is interpreted as a bullish signal in the long term, but the analysis also leaves open the possibility that sideways trading and accumulation will continue in the short term rather than additional gains.